National Observer is reporting live from Liberal Party election night headquarters at Montreal's Fairmont Queen Elizabeth Hotel on Oct. 19, where party faithful will gather to hear what may well be Justin Trudeau's victory speech this evening.
Just hours before polls close across the country, Trudeau's resurgent Liberals are sky-high in national polls and seemingly on track to form at least a stable minority government of 140-150 seats, but some are saying that the Grits could sweep to a majority. If so, this would be a remarkable turnaround for a party that many predicted would go extinct after their 2011 election, when they were reduced to just 35 seats.
Under Justin Trudeau's leadership, Canada's 'natural governing party' has focused its messaging on core progressive issues: tax cuts for the middle class and making the one per cent pay more, investing in needed infrastructure, and consistent opposition to divisive legislation such as C-24, which can allow dual nationals to be stripped of citizenship without judicial oversight.
But don't write off Stephen Harper's Conservatives just yet: they have a consistently stable base of support that has always hovered around the 30 per cent mark throughout the 2015 election campaign, which may yet allow Harper to squeak back in with a minority government after tonight. Even if he loses, the party will likely survive relatively intact and barring some unforeseen catastrophe will almost certainly live to fight another day.
Live updates
01:24 am ET - We are finally ending our live blog after a night that made history. Thank you to all our readers.
00:34 am ET - "...they know in their heart of hearts that a Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian," declares Trudeau - a clear riposte of C-24.
00:27 am ET - Justin Trudeau is greeted by cheer after cheer from rapturous supporters tonight. His 'rock star' style is a stark contrast to Stephen Harper's more buttoned up way of governing.
00:24 am ET - "You will be at the heart of this new government. So my message to you tonight my fellow citizens is simple. Have faith in yourselves and your country," said Trudeau in a rousing victory speech.
23:02 pm ET - Now for some comment from Elizabeth May: "We're going to take back this country!"
22:41 pm ET - LPC is now into majority territory and the crowd is just electric, whooping and dancing as the Conservatives crash. This is the worst result for a united Conservative Party in living memory.
22:13 pm ET - LPC is now either leading or elected in 165 ridings. They are nearing majority territory.
22:10 pm ET - Bill Blair wins Scarborough Southwest for LPC
22:08 pm ET - Some more reactions at Liberal HQ after election victory is called for Trudeau.
[More celebrations unfold]
21:59 pm ET - Polls in BC are closing. And here's Cameron Ahmad talking policies, rebuilding, and environmental policy from what increasingly looks like Canada's next government.
Celebrations unfold.
21:45 pm ET - Joy at Liberal headquarters tonight as the Harper era draws to a close after 10 years.
Trudeau victorious.
21:40 pm ET- "We can tell you that the next PM of Canada will be Justin Trudeau,"
21:39 pm ET - LPC is still in the lead - elected or leading in 52 ridings versus the CPC's 17.
21:31 pm ET - it has been a clean sweep so far for the LPC in the Atlantic - but Ontario and Quebec will effectively decide Canada's next government.
21:30 pm ET - polls in the battlegrounds of Ontario and Quebec are closing right around now.
21:15 pm ET - polls in Quebec and Ontario close in 15 minutes.
21:10 pm ET - Liberal HQ is filling up and the atmosphere in this building is starting to crackle. There is anticipation, excitement, and adrenaline in the air here.
21:05 pm ET - At time of writing the Liberals are sending 29 MPs to Ottawa. They have absolutely powered through the Atlantic regions. The other parties have not yet elected anyone.
20:45 pm ET - Now for some vote share info - CBC reports more than 334,000 people voting LPC and nearly 97,000 voting for the CPC. NDP have less than 94,000 so far. Greens just over 18,000.
20:40 pm ET - Scene inside Liberal HQ at Montreal's Fairmont hotel. Still relatively empty as the LPC has now elected 22 MPs and is leading in another 9 ridings.
20:34 pm ET - The Liberals are really cleaning up in teh Atlantic with 21 MPs elected so far. They are leading in 11 other ridings. No other party has yet elected anyone.
20:25 pm ET - The CPC has clawed back one lead - but still have no MPs elected and the Liberals are currently sending 16 people and counting to Ottawa.
20:21 pm ET - Former Harper minister Peter MacKay mentions the reasons why he stepped away from politics - "the focus is on my family," and says he will "always be a Conservative," to CBC.
20:19 pm ET - The CPC has now lost 13 seats in Atlantic Canada.
20:18 pm ET - The Liberals now have 11 MPs elected and 21 leads. The updated numbers show that the other parties have none.
20:11 pm ET - CPC Oceans and Fisheries minister Gale Shea is out - second one of the night.
20:09 pm ET - LPC strategist Amanda Alvaro discusses Liberal strategy as her party sweeps across the Atlantic.
Amanda Alvaro
20:06 pm ET - "Deeply entrenched hatred for Stephen Harper," is driving Liberal tide washing over Atlantic Canada - Mike Duffy and EI reforms providing handy fuel for the Grit fire that threatens to burn down the CPC.
20:02 pm ET - The LPC has 5 elected and 20 leads as the CPC Aboriginal Affairs Minister is beaten.
19:45 pm ET - The Liberals are now elected in five ridings and leading in six. Conservatives and NDP both have one lead. None for the others yet.
19:41 pm ET - The Conservatives are leading in one NB riding and is the first Tory lead of the evening. The Liberal lead remains overwhelming in the Atlantic region so far.
19:36 pm ET - Mark Eyking has been elected in a riding with a high number of veterans - and where one VAC office was shut by the Harper government. Perhaps those veterans working to unseat Harper will enjoy some successes tonight.
19:35 pm ET - The NDP is leading in one riding. Other parties - CPC, Bloc, Greens, Independents, and others have nothing so far.
19:33 pm ET - We now have three Liberals elected in NF-LB.
19:27 pm ET - Liberals lead in six ridings. Still none for anyone else but that won't always be the case.
19:18 pm ET - Liberals are leading in 5 seats, no results for any other parties.
18:58 pm ET - All going to plan National Observer will be speaking with some senior Liberal strategists shortly, who will provide some insight into their party's meteoric rise to likely front runners.
18:57 pm ET - Earlier today National Observer spoke with seven people on the streets of Montreal. Six told us they desired a change of government. Two people also agreed to be filmed. This is what they had to say.
View from the street
18:10 p.m. ET - We know Trudeau arrived in Montreal at dawn and will likely watch results in his hotel room with wife Sophie and the kids and his top people.
17:50 p.m. ET - The meeting room is still fairly quiet, as media gather and co-ordinate coverage of tonight and staffers have recently tested out the sound system. Red and white disco lights are dancing across the floor. But everyone knows it'll be an absolute zoo later on.
- Fram Dinshaw
- Reporter
- @FramDinshaw
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