Canada is out of excuses. Europe slashes climate pollution while we flounder

To avoid a dystopian future for our climate, the world’s most advanced economies must lead the way. These are the nations with the necessary money, talent and capacity to transition to safer energy sources first. And their high per-capita emissions mean these nations are disproportionally responsible for creating the crisis. 

So it was welcome news when the European Union (EU) recently announced that it cut emissions an impressive eight per cent in the last year. The EU is the world’s second-largest economy. Its 27 member nations are home to 450 million people. All those people and economic activity also emit a lot of climate pollution – more than three billion tonnes per year. So European action to reduce their climate impact is critical for our future climate. 

Single-year heroics like this are inspiring and helpful. But even more necessary in the climate fight is the year-after-year fight to drive down emissions. As my first chart shows, the EU has been doing this too.

That plunging blue line on the chart shows EU emissions. Today they emit 36 per cent less than they did back in 1990. 

Even more hopeful, the EU has increased their pace. For example, in the last decade they cut twice as many emissions as they did in the first decade. 

Last year’s eight per cent drop was also twice the annual pace needed to meet their upcoming 2030 climate target.

Not only is the EU cutting emissions as a group, but every member nation (except the tiny island nation of Cyprus) has as well. I’ve shown current emissions for all these nations with blue dots. Many have cut emissions more than 40 per cent already -- including Germany, Finland and Denmark. And Estonia leads the pack by slashing emissions by more than 70 per cent. 

Technical notes: the emissions data used in this article excludes “land use” emissions (aka LULUCF). The year 1990 is the standard starting line used to compare international climate action.

Clearly, it has long been possible for advanced economies to reduce their climate damage. With so many examples of peers cutting emissions, let's look at what Canadians have been up to. 

Canadian emissions

Canada, like the EU, is a global top-ten economy. Canada is also an EU partner in the elite Group of Seven (G7) – along with the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), Germany, France, Italy and Japan. Collectively, these wealthy industrialized nations produce half the world’s GDP and emit one third of global climate pollution. 

I’ve added Canada’s emissions to the chart as a red line. I’ve also added the other G7 nations, along with their flags.

As you can see, Canada is the only one of these nations emitting more than in 1990. And we emit a lot more -- 16 per cent more. 

Way back in 1988, Canada first promised to reduce our supersized climate impact. That’s when Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and his Progressive Conservative government set Canada's first climate target – a 20 per cent reduction by 2005. But 35 years after our self-appointed starting line, Canadians are doing even worse. 

Our generational failure to rein in the climate damage we cause has left Canadians increasingly isolated from our peers. We are floundering high up the crumbling climate cliff, unprepared to keep pace with the global leaders. We have left ourselves with a much bigger task than our peers, with much less time to do it. 

To appreciate just how far behind we are, let’s look at our upcoming climate target.

Targeting chaos

Both Canada and the EU have set climate targets for 2030 under the global Paris Agreement. I’ve added these targets to the chart as gray bull's-eyes.

The EU’s target is to emit 55 per cent less than in 1990. To pull this off, they need to cut another 19 per cent from their 1990 emissions. That’s shown by a gray arrow on the chart. The EU says they can get most of that way with existing policies. New policies will be needed for the final five per cent.

Canada’s target is only half that of the Europeans, at 25 per cent below 1990. Despite this, our foot-dragging has left us much farther away from our target. To meet our target, Canadians need to cut 41 per cent of our 1990 emissions. And we have left ourselves only seven years to do it in. The annual cuts we now need to make have soared to around 35 MtCO2 per year. That’s crazy far beyond anything we’ve ever accomplished in any normal economic year. 

How close will Canada’s existing policies get us? I would like to tell you, but unlike the EU report, Canada’s latest projections are too opaque for me to understand. For one thing, these projections use outdated emissions data that the government has significantly changed since then. For another, the government confusingly mixes in a variety of uncertain “offsets” in a way I can’t untangle. At this point, my best guesstimate is that Canada’s current policies won’t even get us to our 1990 level in 2030, let alone below it.  

The Europeans' success at eliminating emissions is even more remarkable given how much less they emit per person compared to Canadians. 

Comparing emissions per person

My final chart shows current emissions per capita. The height of each bar indicates the tonnes of CO2-equivalent per year (tCO2e).

The EU average has fallen to 7.3 tonnes per person. That’s the dark blue bar on the chart. That’s one third less than in 1990.

Importantly, the EU is quickly converging on the global average of 6.6 tonnes (purple line). This convergence — where advanced economies act to lower their per-capita emissions down to the global average — has been at the heart of global climate agreements for decades.  

The chart also shows each EU member nation with a light blue bar. The highest per-capita emitters in the EU emit twice the global average -- Iceland (12.2 tCO2e) and Luxembourg (12.5). At the other end of the spectrum, several EU nations are now below the global average. These include Spain (6.2 tCO2e), France (5.8), Portugal (5.4) and Sweden (4.3). 

Canadians, in contrast, currently emit triple the global average — at 18 tCO2e per capita. That’s the towering red bar on the right of the chart. 

I find it very hopeful that so many of our peer nations are successfully reducing climate pollution. It also makes clear that Canada's generational failure to reduce our supersized emissions has been a choice. If all of those nations can cut emissions, we can too.