I was convinced the Liberal Party couldn’t win a fourth term. I was wrong

In my 20 years in politics as a Liberal partisan, I’ve heard my share of platitudes recited like articles of faith by pundits, media and party strategists alike. 

But the one that has consistently stood out is the cliché that governments defeat themselves as they near a decade in power. Yet, there are several exceptions to this rule in the modern era. 

Liberals governed for 16 consecutive years (1963-1979) under Prime Ministers Lester Pearson and Pierre Trudeau with Trudeau quickly returning to office in 1980 on the heels of the “Joe Clark interlude.” 

Between 1993-2006, the party ruled for nearly 13 years as a result of three majority governments led by Jean Chretien and one minority government headed by Paul Martin. 

I’ve been reflecting on this well-observed cliché in recent weeks amid a stunning reversal in public opinion. Since Trudeau’s resignation on January 7, Poilievre’s Conservatives have seen a staggering 27-point advantage evaporate into a single-digit lead with some polls now showing the two parties locked in a dead heat. 

Trudeau’s welcome resignation, the headline-grabbing Liberal leadership race, and the meteoric rise of Mark Carney’s candidacy would have been enough to upend the political dynamics heading into 2025. 

Add to that Donald Trump’s unprecedented attack on Canada’s sovereignty and the onset of a punishing trade war between the closest of allies, and we’ve been thrust into a completely new world. 

In this uncharted world, voters are re-examining their assumptions and motivations — even their values — as they look ahead to the first federal election in this new era. 

The ballot question has changed from one hinged on Trudeau’s tired leadership and unpopular policies to one grounded in a simple question: which leader is best placed to push back against Trump’s imperialistic aims and fight tooth and nail for Canadian sovereignty and prosperity. 

It’s an entirely new issue: one that advantages an incumbent government that had been staring down the barrel of certain defeat last month. While the Liberals still face an uphill battle at the polls, for the first time in years, victory is within reach. 

If Liberals are to accomplish what seemed impossible in January, they must do three things: 

First, they must project new leadership that is completely different in tone and substance from that of Trudeau. 

The party’s leadership race is already in its final stretch with Mark Carney strongly favoured to secure the Liberal crown on March 9. Carney’s life story and impeccable career as a public servant and central banker demonstrate that he’s a sharp break from Trudeau. 

Carney entered the political arena late, grew up in a middle-class Western Canadian family, and has devoted his career to thinking and writing about financial markets. Poilievre’s suggestion that the wonky Carney is a carbon copy of Trudeau is pure fiction. 

Second, the Liberals desperately need a leader determined to lay out a new agenda for the government while atoning for their policy failures under Trudeau. 

Carney has already come out of the gate swinging on this front, constantly criticizing the Trudeau government for profligate spending, noting “we can’t redistribute money we don’t have.” 

The 59-year-old father of four has championed a “growth agenda,” pledged to scrap the consumer carbon tax, and proposed a new approach to Ottawa’s spending focused on saving taxpayer dollars through stronger fiscal management. These proposals aren’t mere window-dressing. They’re bold policies that contrast with Trudeau’s record. 

Finally, Liberals must commit to sweeping party renewal. This includes strengthening the party’s moribund infrastructure because local riding associations and the party's provincial-territorial wings have significantly atrophied in recent years as they wield less and less influence vis-à-vis the central party in Ottawa. The party also needs a fresh communications approach that meets the urgency of the moment, which means communicating in a way that doesn’t talk down to voters and eschews identity politics. 

Liberals must move quickly to overhaul their candidate recruitment and fundraising operations in time for an anticipated spring election. This will require a cleaning out of the party’s national office with an eye toward urgent election readiness and the recruitment of star candidates that mirror Carney’s centrist Liberal brand. 

At the onset of 2025, Liberals were burned, battered and bruised. They faced electoral annihilation. But recent domestic and geopolitical events have thrust the natural governing party back onto the hockey rink in a way not even this lifelong Liberal could have imagined. 

As a 1981 Globe and Mail editorial aptly noted on the heels of Pierre Trudeau’s return-from-the-dead:

 “The Liberal Party is like the Tower of Pisa: it always appears to be falling, but never does.”

Andrew Perez is a Principal at Perez Strategies and a Toronto-based Liberal strategist, political commentator and freelance writer.