Carney's cabinet selections clarify climate priorities before upcoming election

With an election widely expected to be around the corner, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s choice of cabinet ministers reveals his approach to this tense political moment, observers say. 

For voters who care about climate, the headline is that former Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault, the longtime environmental activist who has frequently drawn the ire of conservatives and the fossil fuel industry, has been shuffled to a new far less controversial role. No longer overseeing policies aimed at slashing emissions, from the carbon price to oil and gas emissions cap, he will now serve as Carney’s Quebec Lieutenant — the government’s leading voice in Quebec — as well as Minister of Parks Canada and Minister of Canadian Culture and Identity. 

After Carney and his cabinet were sworn in, the group held its first cabinet meeting Friday afternoon where Carney announced the consumer facing carbon price will be eliminated “immediately.” He said Canadians will still receive rebate payments in the next quarter (the payment is scheduled to be deposited in bank accounts before the end of April). 

“As my government’s first order of business, I have cancelled it,” he said in a statement posted to social media.

“This will make a difference to hard-pressed Canadians but it is part of a much bigger set of measures that this government is taking to ensure that we fight against climate change, that our companies are competitive, and the country moves forward,” he said. “So it's my honour on behalf of my colleagues to sign this.”

The two big climate-related changes — shuffling Guilbeault and cutting the carbon tax — go hand-in-hand, says James Rowe, an associate professor at the University of Victoria who studies politics and environmental movements. 

“Guilbeault has been the literal face of selling that policy, and so to keep the same minister in place as you're changing one of the benchmark policies, I just don't see how it makes sense,” he said. “Shuffling Guilbeault out of environment offers a fresh start, and signals some change from Trudeau which I think is important politically, but I don't think it has to be read as a fundamental change beyond moving away from the consumer carbon tax.”

Conservatives are changing up their messaging in response to the moves. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has moved on from the consumer-facing tax to focus on criticizing the industrial carbon pricing — the workhorse of Ottawa’s emission reduction plan. 

“I am extremely concerned that this cabinet includes most of the same ministers responsible for the most damaging government policies levelled by Ottawa against Alberta in our over 100-year history,” she said in a statement. “We are gravely concerned that plans to significantly increase the industrial carbon tax will be just as damaging to Alberta’s economy as the consumer carbon tax has been.”

Smith also criticized the proposed oil and gas emissions cap, as well as existing plans and legislation like the Impact Assessment Act, measures to reduce plastic pollution, anti-greenwashing legislation, electric vehicle sales mandates, and the Sustainable Jobs Act which aims to guide a just transition for oil and gas workers. 

Terry Duguid, who previously served as parliamentary secretary to Guilbeault, has been promoted to Minister of Environment and Climate Change Canada. Duguid may not yet be a heavy hitter, but he’s been around the block. When former environment minister Catherine McKenna was leading the department, she tapped him to lead the cleanup of Lake Winnipeg. Since then, he has also served as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s special advisor for water, and was a driving force behind the creation of the Canada Water Agency. 

Other cabinet ministers to take note of on environment-related files include Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson, who retained his post, and former Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada Minister François-Philippe Champagne, who has been tapped to lead Finance Canada. He was Justin Trudeau’s point person to land billions of dollars worth of electric vehicle manufacturing and battery plant deals. 

“Given Carney's whole shtick is the intersection of finance and climate, I think there's a lot of subtle signalling there for people who are paying attention that this is a file that he's going to be taking seriously,” Rowe said.

At the same time, Chrystia Freeland, who has long been an obstacle to climate action around the cabinet table according to insiders, has returned to cabinet serving as Minister for Transportation and Internal Trade. 

Guilbeault’s new gig

Quebec is a vital battleground for the Liberals, and to avoid opposition parties picking up seats, regional considerations have to be tended to carefully, Rowe said. 

Quebec voters typically want more ambitious climate action than other parts of the country, and Guilbeault being tapped for the lieutenant job could be a way to mitigate blowback from his being removed from the environment and climate change post. 

Another clear indication Carney was concerned about potential backlash from the climate movement is that the morning of his swearing in as prime minister, he met with leaders from environmental NGOs to outline his vision for climate. 

Guilbeault will maintain a significant link to the environment portfolio with Parks Canada. As part of this role, Canada’s National Observer has learned he will be responsible for stickhandling the conservation and biodiversity protection file at large, including wildlife services and marine conservation, previously under the purview of Fisheries and Oceans Canada. Effectively being the minister for nature reflects one of Guilbeault’s signature accomplishments from the Trudeau era — hosting the UN biodiversity summit in Montreal in 2022 which landed the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (a major Paris Agreement-style treaty).

Catherine Abreu, a prominent Canadian climate advocate and member of Canada’s Net-Zero Advisory Body, said Carney comes into power with strong climate credentials including launching the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net-Zero and spearheading efforts in the financial sector to recognize and respond to climate risks. However, Carney’s opening gambit “feels dangerous to me,” she said.

“I think we can all understand a new leader's desire to distinguish himself from the previous leader, particularly when that previous leader's popularity had plummeted in some polls,” she said. “That being said, why are we starting [changes] with the climate? Why are we starting with environmental issues? Why are we starting with the environment and climate change minister?”

Abreu warned the abrupt about-face risks allowing the Conservative Party to set the agenda for the coming election and “buy into this baseless axe the tax political campaign that doesn't have much behind it but a slogan.”

Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre said Friday that despite the cabinet shuffle, Carney does not represent any real change from Trudeau. 

“Mark Carney thinks Canadians are stupid,” he said. “It is the same Liberal gang, with the same Liberal agenda, the same Liberal results and the same Liberal promises as the last ten years, only now they are seeking a fourth term in power.”

Poilievre went on to pledge if elected, he would “axe the carbon tax for everyone forever,” repeal the Impact Assessment Act that requires companies to go through environmental assessments and “instead grant rapid permission” to companies planning to build fossil fuel pipelines, export terminals and mines. 

Caroline Brouillette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada, said in a statement that even if Carney’s cabinet is short lived with an election on the horizon, the climate crisis poses economic impacts worse than the threat of tariffs from the United States, requiring an “all hands on deck” approach. 

Mark Zacharias, executive director at Clean Energy Canada, said in a statement that his organization is encouraging Carney to capitalize on the opportunity presented by the United States backsliding on climate commitments by aggressively pivoting to a clean economic future.

“As we enter a particularly tumultuous time, we hope the new prime minister will stand up for Canada and guide the country down a better path to prosperity alongside our clean-energy-focused trade partners in Europe and Asia,” he said. 

Carney said Friday he intends to make Canada both a conventional and clean energy superpower. 

For Rowe, that suggests Carney is likely to continue the Liberal Party approach to climate: reducing domestic emissions while doing little to address the staggeringly high emissions from fossil fuel exports. That’s a significant problem for the world because Canada’s exported emissions leapt to over one billion tonnes of greenhouse gas pollution in 2023 — far more than the country’s total. 

But Carney understands climate change, and Rowe says the new prime minister has an opportunity to redefine the narrative of climate action in this country. Climate change has fallen down the list of priorities for voters relative to economic issues, because Canadians still see climate action as separate from pocketbook issues — but it’s not, he said.

“Carney is well positioned to make that link between economy and environment and clarify for Canadian voters that the climate is a national security, economic security, bread-and-butter issue, and that it's worth our while collectively to move forward on that front,” he said.

“The threat in this upcoming election cycle is if the NDP, or Bloc for that matter, really try to outflank him on climate and propose some really compelling plans that we have yet to see in the Canadian scene,” he said. “Voters could get peeled away if he's not careful.”

-With files from the Canadian Press

John Woodside / Local Journalism Initiative / Canada’s National Observer