Pierre Poilievre might have punched himself out

The legendary 1974 heavyweight fight between an aging Muhammad Ali and the unbeaten (and seemingly unbeatable) world champion George Foreman looked at the time like a dangerously one-sided affair. Bookies had pegged Ali as a 4:1 underdog, and his more ardent fans thought avoiding major injury — and even death — would be the real victory for the former champion. Instead, he turned Foreman’s ferocious strength into a weakness, and knocked him out cold in the eighth round.  

Why am I bringing this up? Because as we wait for a seemingly imminent election call, there are some interesting parallels between that fight and the current state of Canada’s federal political scene. Now, Pierre Poilievre is clearly no George Foreman, and neither Justin Trudeau nor Mark Carney have anything in common with Muhammad Ali. But Ali’s strategy of laying on the ropes and tiring out his aggressive young opponent — the so-called “rope-a-dope” — seems to have been inadvertently employed by the federal Liberals with Poilievre. And now, after two years of throwing haymaker after haymaker, Poilievre suddenly finds himself pouring political sweat.  

Yes, yes, there are some obvious differences here. Ali couldn’t swap himself out for a fresh fighter mid-round, for one thing. His tactic was a signature demonstration of his brilliance and creativity, the traits that made — and make — him the greatest boxer of all time. The Liberals, in contrast, seem to have stumbled backwards into their revived electoral fortunes, largely because an American president decided to repeatedly threaten Canada’s sovereignty. 

But maybe, just maybe, there’s some small element of foresight involved here. The Liberal decision not to aggressively counterpunch when Poilievre launched his image makeover in 2023 doesn’t look nearly as dumb as it seemed at the time, when commentators — including me — criticized their failure to define Poilievre. That’s because he can’t now launch another makeover, and is therefore stuck with the brand his team chose for him — one that seemed to tap into the look and energy of so-called “manosphere” that’s dominated by pro-Trump voices like Joe Rogan and Jordan Peterson. And while he may have removed his glasses and improved his physique, Poilievre didn’t change the essential nature of who he is as a politician. Like Foreman in 1974, he only knows how to be on the attack. 

Now that Poilievre finds himself on his heels, with poll after poll showing him in a real fight with Carney’s Liberals, it’s not clear he knows how to adjust. As Abacus Data pollster David Coletto noted recently, “Carney may flip the script on Poilievre in part because Poilievre will now be like the incumbent. He’s more well known and is a sitting MP. Perception is EVERYTHING.” After spending huge amounts of time and treasure building the next election up as an opportunity for change, Poilievre may now find himself on the wrong side of that frame. 

He’s also forever at risk of being on the wrong side of his own base, who have a disproportionate level of affection for Donald Trump compared to the broader Canadian electorate. Threading that particular needle requires a level of political finesse that Poilievre has never shown much interest in displaying. Like Foreman, he’d rather pound away at the heavy bag than work on his agility and defensive techniques. 

More than anything, though, he just looks tired. His political punches aren’t landing as heavily as they once did, and they look increasingly wild and desperate. In a recent social media post, he argued that “Mark Carney has nothing but slogans. I have a plan to put Canada First.” This is pretty rich coming from someone who’s spent the last two years engaged in flagrant sloganeering, and whose critique of slogans is limited to, yes, a slogan. 

Even in his half-hearted attempts to stand up to the Trump administration’s attack on Canada’s sovereignty, he still tries to bring the conversation back to the Liberals and the carbon tax — which Carney has already nimbly sidestepped, leaving Poilievre swinging at nothing but air. His contempt for modern Canada is also out of step with the sudden resurgence of patriotism. As he told Jordan Peterson a few months ago, “the true story — it’s the pathetic story — of our trade surplus, is that we’re actually handing over our resources, stupidly. It’s not the Americans’ fault, it’s our fault, we’re stupid.”

This isn’t going to work. But like Foreman in 1974, the harder a frustrated Poilievre tries to knock his opponent out, the more he exposes himself to a potentially devastating right-cross. The man who’s poised to deliver it might want to go back and rewatch that fight just to see if he can pick up a trick or two. Then again, with the polls trending the way they are, maybe he doesn’t need to.