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Pierre Poilievre can't escape Donald Trump

Pierre Poilievre has spent the last few years cozying up to MAGA-friendly voters. Now, he has some explaining to do. Photo by Natasha Bulowksi

Pierre Poilievre knows he has a Donald Trump problem. After spending the last two-plus years imitating Trump’s approach to politics and winning plaudits from the people in his orbit, his proximity to the U.S. president and his anti-Canada policies has suddenly become an obstacle to his once-inevitable election victory. As it turns out, the reaping isn’t nearly as much fun as the sowing. 

A recent Angus Reid poll laid Poilievre’s political predicament bare, and not just because it had the Liberals five points ahead of his Conservatives. When asked who was best equipped to handle the trade war between the United States and Canada, respondents favoured Carney by a staggering 25 points (55-30). On meeting Trump’s threats of annexation and Canada becoming the 51st state, they gave Carney a 22 point edge. And when it comes to who they trust to protect Canada’s economy, Carney was 20 points ahead. 

Poilievre’s apparent solution here isn’t a fiery speech calling out Trump’s unprovoked aggression or the announcement of new policies that go beyond simplistic sloganeering. Instead, it’s taking Trump — a known and notorious liar — at his word. “Last night,” he said on social media, “President Donald Trump endorsed Mark Carney. Why? Because, as Trump said, he’s ‘easier’ to deal with, and knows that I will be a tough negotiator and always put Canada First. Carney is weak and would cave to Trump’s demands, just like he did when he moved his company headquarters from Canada to New York City.”

Trump never demanded that Brookfield — the company in question, which was very much not “his” (Carney’s) in any meaningful sense — move its headquarters to New York. The company did that because it’s a condition of being listed on the S&P 500, which would increase Brookfield’s access to capital and improve its global competitiveness. As Brookfield noted in its statement at the time, the move — which was announced before Trump was elected — wouldn’t result in any changes to the operations of the business and its employees. But in his desperate need to portray Carney as weaker on Trump, Poilievre is grasping at every available straw. 

It’s not hard to imagine Poilievre’s team — and specifically CPC MP Jamil Jivani, who has touted his long standing friendship with Vice President JD Vance — calling in a favour here. The notoriously transactional president, who has made his disdain for the Liberal government clear many times, would probably love nothing more than to help defeat it in the next election. It costs Trump nothing to throw out a statement like the one he made to Laura Ingraham, especially when it creates potential leverage with a future Conservative government. Foreign interference, anyone? 

But it’s going to take more than a throwaway comment in a Fox News interview to convince Canadians that Poilievre is prepared to stand up to Trump. In all his deeply predictable talk about the importance of building new oil and gas pipelines, for example, he hasn’t disavowed the Keystone XL project, which would increase our economic dependence on the United States. He hasn’t called the president out on his obvious misunderstanding of the trade relationship with Canada, one that he falsely describes as America “subsidizing” us by buying our products. And he continues to use a slogan — Canada First — that is a clear and unmistakable echo of Trump’s own political branding. 

It’s no secret why the reflexively combative Poilievre is so visibly pulling his punches when it comes to Donald Trump. He knows that any meaningful and sustained criticism of Trump’s policies will open the door to a resurgence in support for Maxime Bernier’s PPC. That’s something he and his team have tried to guard against ever since he became Conservative Party leader in 2022, and it’s why he spends so much time in spaces and places that are home to the so-called “Maple MAGA” crowd. It’s why he brought coffees and donuts to the convoy that occupied Ottawa and later marched in solidarity with anti-vaccine protestors. It’s why he does long interviews with Jordan Peterson and outlets like True North rather than the mainstream media. It’s why he’s been doing a lot of things over the last two years. 

Pierre Poilievre's chances of winning the next election have been torpedoed by his proximity to Donald Trump and obvious unwillingness to criticize him. His solution? Taking Donald Trump at his word.

Until Trump’s election, this strategy of smothering the potential PPC vote was working. Now, it may come back to haunt Poilievre. He somehow has to convince most Canadians who are concerned about their jobs and even territorial sovereignty that he will stand up to a president who is conspicuously popular among many of his supporters, and with whom he shares an obvious fondness for populist political rhetoric and weaponized nostalgia. At the same time, he has to convince the Trump-supporting voters who make up almost half of his party’s base not to defect to the more openly pro-Trump PPC. And so, the more he pushes in one direction, the more ground he loses in the other. 

You can expect the Carney Liberals to ruthlessly exploit this vulnerability. That might have been at least part of the calculus behind his decision to invite Volodymyr Zelesnkyy to the G7 Summit later this year, given the way that issue animates the more tinfoil-laden parts of Poilievre’s political universe. There will be other similar issues dropped into his lap that deliberately apply pressure to an obvious fracture in his party — one he essentially spent the last two years inviting. He might still win the election, but the political bed Poilievre made for himself here isn’t looking nearly as comfortable as it once did.

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