What’s driving Atlantic Canada back to the Liberals?

Less than a month before the federal election, the Liberals are seeing a sea change in support in Atlantic Canada because of factors specific to the region’s economy and culture, observers say. 

Polls have done an about-face in the region, which experts say is fuelled by a historic lean toward the party amid threats from the outside, while the longstanding desire for change has been satiated by a new Liberal leader.

Most recent polling found the Liberal Party has a 21 percentage-point lead in the region, which includes Prince Edward Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. Nationally, the Conservatives and the Liberals are neck-and-neck. 

The Liberals had fallen behind in popularity over the past two years. The party currently holds 24 of 32 seats across the Atlantic provinces, a decline from the 32 seats it captured in the 2015 election.

In October 2024, the Conservatives were favoured by 24 points in Atlantic Canada. Voters were becoming increasingly unsatisfied by former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, but Don Desserud, a P.E.I. political analyst, says Mark Carney coming in as his replacement has appealed to the public’s desire for change.

“Once he was removed, it changed the playing field considerably,” Desserud said.

Carney, swooping in amid the imposition of new U.S. tariffs and cancelling the consumer carbon tax, has left Poilievre with little to stand on in the area, Desserud said — as a small region heavily dependent on exports, Atlantic Canada is especially concerned about the impact of tariffs, and Carney’s messaging about building an independent economy is likely resonating with voters.

The Conservatives have been less able to capture the imaginations of voters in the region.

“Unfortunately for the Conservatives, they have not yet figured out a way to pivot onto what they want to do,” he said. “They’ve completely lost the plot. They seem to be all over the place right now.”

While Poilievre’s Conservatives seem to think that taxation is the number one priority for Atlantic Canadians, the relationship between Canada and the US is much more pressing, Desserud said. Conservative strategist Kory Teneycke, who helped Ontario Premier Doug Ford win a majority government, agreed in a recent interview with the CBC.  He said Poilievre’s plan to address concerns about tariffs and annexation has been inadequate. “You have to be a little more direct and more consistent in terms of the message around the US.” 

Atlantic Canadian voters “see [Carney’s] economic credentials as perhaps best positioned to counteract the situation with our US neighbors,” said Mario Levesque, a professor at New Brunswick’s Mount Allison University. He notes there are region-specific tariff worries that Poilievre hasn’t adequately addressed. There are concerns in Nova Scotia’s tire industry (the province’s largest export to the US at $1.3 billion a year) and in Saint John, which is home to the Irving oil refinery and has been called Canada’s “most tariff-exposed” city. The fishing industry is also nervous about both US and Chinese tariffs, especially on lobster. 

At the same time, Atlantic Canadians typically don’t connect with the federal brand of conservatism, Levesque said. While former NB premier Blaine Higgs, a former Irving Oil executive, is an exception, the region generally favours the more moderate brand of Progressive Conservatism. 

Desserud agrees, and points, for example, to former PEI Progressive Conservative Premier Dennis King — who recently stepped down but took 22 of the province’s 27 seats in the most recent provincial election.

While he expects Poilievre is too extreme for Atlantic voters, Levesque said the leader also “doesn’t understand Atlantic Canada.” As one example, Poilievre’s messaging around slashing funding for the CBC doesn’t sit well with people in the region, who have few local news sources apart from the public broadcaster, he said.

If Poilievre wanted to appeal to people in the region, focusing on more “meat and potatoes” issues would likely be more effective, Levesque said, like cost of living or housing, both of which have skyrocketed under the Liberals. However, his approach would need to be tailored to the region and consider rural voters. What works in Toronto or Vancouver does not work in Atlantic Canada. Levesque said Poilievre’s promise to remove the toll on the Confederation Bridge on PEI (which charges motorists about $50 to drive off the island) is a good example of that, but one Carney has also made.

“The slogans are fun, but at the end of the day, what's your policy stance? He has not yet been able to effectively communicate that,” said Levesque. "And so, people are kind of wondering, well, Trudeau is gone, the carbon tax is gone. What have you got?”

Both Levesque and Desserud agree that Atlantic Canada does not make or break the possibility of a Liberal majority, but can set the tone as results start coming in on election night, April 28.

“We don't make or break the majority, but we give them that extra nudge to get there. Overall, we just don't have enough seats, but we can make a difference … so having a strong showing here is super important,” Levesque said.

And while the Liberals continue to pick up steam in the polls, Carney becoming leader has also brought two MPs back into the race who previously said they would not run in the next election: Saint John-Rothesay MP Wayne Long and MP for Central Nova Scotia Sean Fraser.

The French and English leaders’ debates are set to take place on April 16 and 17, respectively, which Desserud says could have an impact on the polls. Carney struggles particularly in French, but will face obstacles even in the English language debate; Poilievre is a far more seasoned debater and politician.

“I don't underestimate him. I don't underestimate the fact that there's still enough time in the campaign to turn things around,” Desserud said.  

“But right now, it looks like they're in a bit of a free fall, and so we'll see … maybe the debates will change things.”