Conservative fortunes ebb on West Coast while Liberals surge

Mark Carney’s Liberals have rapidly recaptured much of the urban area and suburbs at the heart of the Lower Mainland and may even be gaining a toehold in some Vancouver Island ridings, where the party has never held much sway.

At the end of January, the Conservatives — long at the top of the polls — were set to turn British Columbia blue. Now, Liberals are currently projected to win 24 seats in BC, up from one seat just two months ago, according to forecasts by 338 Canada. In contrast, the Tories are now predicted to win 18 seats, down from the 37 seats predicted at the height of their popularity. 

The seismic shift in the political landscape is because a potential trade war with the Trump administration has become the number one issue in the coming election — eclipsing housing, affordability and healthcare as voter concerns — said BC pollster Mario Canseco, president of Research Co.   

“Consistently, over the past month and a half, we’ve seen people don't really tend to trust Poilievre to handle the situation,” Canseco said. 

As of Wednesday afternoon, US President Donald Trump announced a new slate of tariffs on numerous trading partners, but Canada and Mexico appear to be exempt. Existing tariffs will remain in place.

Poilievre’s populist style — characterized by aggressive political attacks, polarization around social issues like transgender rights, unwavering support for the oil industry coupled with disdain for climate concerns and the media — is reminiscent of the Trump administration and now haunting the party, Canseco said.  

Many voters backing Conservatives, who weren’t previously concerned by a resemblance to Republican tactics, are leery now that US policies threaten Canada.  

“It’s related to the semi-cozy relationship that the Conservatives have with the Republicans in the States,” Canseco said. 

“The stuff you did before doesn’t go away. You still have those pictures of [Conservatives] in MAGA hats who said it was a good thing Trump got elected.” 

Both the Conservatives, and especially the embattled NDP, are bleeding support to the Liberals, especially among older voters and women, a new Angus Reid poll shows. Men aged 35 to 54 remain steadfastly behind Conservatives, which political pundits suggest is due to Poilievre’s promise of good jobs and ability to buy homes. 

“It’s a significant change from the way the Conservatives under Harper used to operate — which essentially forgot completely about the youth vote and let the Liberals, the NDP and the Greens fight it out — [choosing instead] to target the over-55 vote,” Canseco said. 

However, the outcome of the election in BC is not guaranteed for the Liberals, and voter allegiance may shift again if the tariff threat doesn’t materialize, Canseco said. 

“If a week from now, we're not talking about Trump anymore, and it starts to become, again, a debate over housing policy, economics and jobs, and healthcare service funding that could help the conservatives,” he said. 

It would be unwise to discount the Conservatives’ chances given the party has a strong base of support in the province that hasn’t really shifted, said Stewart Prest, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia. 

“Most Canadians who were willing to vote Conservative prior to this moment are still staying with the [party],” Prest said. “Their support has declined a little bit but hasn't collapsed.” 

The NDP, which has dominated coastal ridings, Vancouver Island, and working-class seats in the Lower Mainland for the past decade, is facing collapse, Prest said. 

Some ridings on Vancouver Island, like Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, that traditionally swing orange or blue, are becoming three-way races as the Liberals make gains. Federal Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, who has comfortably held her seat in Saanich-Gulf Islands since 2011, may well lose it as Liberals enter the fray, 338 Canada projections suggest. 

Other rural areas secured in the past by the NDP will likely shift Conservative due to a combination of vote-splitting and the party’s loss of working-class votes in more rural ridings, Prest said. 

Left-leaning parties like the NDP, who once could count on BC’s resource-based ridings, are losing blue-collar voters now more focused on pocketbook issues and good, paying jobs rather than inclusive politics, he said. 

“They respond to ideas of ambition and prosperity and economic efficiency much more so than the calls to social equalization,” Prest said, noting the NDP is polling in the single digits and even party leader Jagmeet Singh’s seat in Burnaby Central is in jeopardy. 

If the NDP's downward trajectory continues, particularly in BC where it traditionally does well, the party will need to reflect on its future direction. Prest said the party will have to either focus on electoral effectiveness to target blue-collar concerns in rural areas, or remain committed to social democratic values popular in urban centres, like curbing inequality, eradicating poverty and upholding universal public programs like daycare, healthcare or seniors benefits. 

The surge in Liberal popularity in the province, typically limited to urban areas, is akin to the Trudeau-mania that swept BC in 1968 under Pierre Trudeau and again in 2015 with Justin Trudeau, Canseco said. 

Canseco is watching to see if Liberals gain seats in the Fraser Valley, a heartland for the Conservatives.

The Abbotsford-South Langley riding could be a wild card after the Conservatives denied seasoned provincial politician Mike de Jong the riding’s nomination and installed a political newcomer. 

“How can you say no to a candidate of his caliber, who is now running as an independent?” Canseco said. 

“He might bring the level of support for the Conservatives down to the point where a Liberal can win that seat.” 

Liberals could also make temporary inroads with conservative-leaning voters if those voters are sufficiently alarmed about Trump and tariffs, he added.

Some seats in the valley swung NDP in the 2020 provincial election while BC was dealing with the pandemic and people felt the party in power was best suited to deal with that emergency, Canseco said.

“It’s an area I’m curious about because it's an electorate that doesn't really react to ideology when there's a crisis,” Canseco said. 

“That region could be a major surprise for the Conservatives.”

Rochelle Baker / Local Journalism Initiative / Canada’s National Observer