The political terrain appears to be shifting away from a narrow ballot box question of who is best equipped to deal with Trump, to who can chart a new relationship between Canada and the US.
On Friday, the Angus Reid Institute found 39 per cent of Canadians believe the trade war with the United States will last until Trump’s term is over — compared to 34 per cent who believe it will last under a year.
“The outlook among Canadians is increasingly confrontational as the country embraces an ‘elbows up’ approach,” the polling firm found. Notably, since December, more Canadians want the country to play hardball with the US, while fewer think Canadian officials should try to negotiate with Trump for lower tariffs or concede to his demands.
The crux of the issue is not just that Trump is chaotic — it’s that political polarization has seized the country so intensely that policies can change significantly from administration to administration, said Asa McKercher, research chair in Canada-US relations at St. Francis Xavier University. With about half of US voters and half of Congress divided, the country can’t be counted on to act consistently in the long run.
“We're at a point where the long-term reliability of what an American administration agrees to is in serious doubt when you can have such different views on basic reality between administrations,” he said. “And even where someone like Mr. Trump can make an agreement and praise it in 2020 as a great agreement — the greatest agreement in fact — and then, five years later say, ‘This is a terrible agreement, I want to rip it up and put in place tariffs that violate that.’ It really makes you wonder why you'd trust America in any kind of capacity.”
Stuart Trew, an international trade researcher with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, said the US unilaterally dismantling the guardrails that have governed world affairs, from trade policy to the international order, is an opportunity for federal leaders to present to voters a vision for Canada in this emerging era.
Trump “clearly wants to suck investment out of Canada,” Trew said, adding that if a Canadian company exports a significant amount of product to the US, the tariffs and risk of additional ones create uncertainty that could tempt them to relocate state-side.
Montreal-based logistic company TFI International openly contemplated relocating to the US before shareholder backlash pushed it to drop the plans. To court investors, mining giant Barrick Gold said last month it was considering relocating its business in the US. And last week, auto company Stellantis said it was idling its Windsor plant, putting thousands of people out of work for at least two weeks, as the dust settles.
For Trew, the ongoing trade war and resulting economic uncertainty is the tip of the iceberg in Canada-US relations given the volatility between administrations that is increasingly defining the country’s relationship to the world.
“Regardless of whatever Trump announced or what he might announce later, we have to make our economy less vulnerable,” he said. “We've got to find a way to strategically disentangle ourselves.”
But Trew said he’s not optimistic about what’s on offer in this election.
“We need a government that is going to lead us through a completely foggy period — a world in transition — and I don't see those visions in any of the parties,” he said.
Political visions
Liberal leader Mark Carney has said Trump’s tariffs against countries, including Canada, will “rupture” the global economy. He’s pledged various near-term support for Canadians, but has said the security and economic relationship that Canada and the US have had for decades is over.
During his run for Liberal leader, he suggested Canada should remain closely integrated with the US in the auto sector, energy and security. But for the economies of tomorrow, like clean technology and artificial intelligence, Canada should diversify with a focus on Europe.
Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre has proposed renegotiating the Canada-United States-Mexico free trade agreement as a way out of the current trade war, but his vision for the Canadian economy relies heavily on boosting resource extraction projects. On Monday, he said a Conservative government would fast-track 10 resource projects, including expansions at LNG Canada, an oilsands expansion project Suncor has proposed, and several projects to mine gold, uranium, copper and more.
“The choice is clear: a fourth Liberal term that will keep our resources in the ground and keep us weak and vulnerable to Trump’s threats, or a strong new Conservative government that will approve projects, unleash our economy, bring jobs and dollars home, and put Canada First,” he said in a statement.
The NDP’s response to Trump’s trade war has been to call for greater support for workers, exempting Canadian-made cars from the GST, and if elected, promising to introduce “Canada Victory Bonds” — a tax-free way for Canadians to support infrastructure projects that the party says will help the economy become more resilient.
“Canadians are already taking a stand — buying local, cancelling US trips, and calling out Trump’s bullying,” NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said in a statement. “With Victory Bonds, we’re giving them another way to act — to invest directly in the fight for our economy and our future.”
Green Party leaders, Elizabeth May and Jonathan Pednault, said in a statement that the US slamming the door on global trade presents an emerging opportunity for Canada. Beyond deepening trade with European allies, they say the time has come for Canada to transition away from a resource economy.
“We’ve transitioned our economy before,” May said. “We can do it again. This isn’t a time for timid tweaks or management fixes. It’s a time for vision and an all-hands-on-deck approach, where the federal government works closely with the provinces to invest in a sustainable and prosperous future.”
The Greens say the federal government should work with the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board to play an active role reshaping the Canadian economy by mandating the pension plan invest in the country to promote jobs and innovation. Additionally, the leaders say Ottawa should establish strategic reserves for important natural resources to steward them through the transition.
Comments
Right in line with the disentangling narrative, it's telling that Mark Carney has just recieved calls in the last few days from UK Prime Minister Starmer and upcoming German Chancellor Merz on this very issue. Carney and French President Macron are already on the same page. Australia wants in too.
There could be an economic alignment forming between the EU and the Commonwealth ( with or without India). Japan and South Korea may well pipe up and contribute to this idea.
An EU-Commonwealth-democratic Asia block will have the largest economy on Earth. That's not saying much until it can act for the common good, but it will give the Trumpian USA and China pause before they try manipulating other nations to bend to their will.
Canada already has a trade deal with the EU, and that is one direction a new government will need to travel to hard and fast. The US election of Trump #2 proves that it cannot be relied on any further, and it's patently ridiculous for any leader to propose deepening our dependency any further.