In Toronto's suburbs, a rising Liberal tide threatens to sink Conservative boats

This translated article is appearing here as part of an Election 2025 collaboration between Le Devoir and Canada’s National Observer, to share news across the language divide.

One would have bet that Melissa Lantsman’s fate was to become the face of the Greater Toronto Area in a federal Conservative government. Instead, Pierre Poilievre's deputy leader finds herself labouring to avoid becoming a Tory island amid a Liberal sea.

As the campaign’s second week ended last Sunday, the star candidate ordered 25 large pizzas for her volunteers as a reward for having knocked on 5,000 doors. At least, that was Lantsman's account of the story on social media following her team's refusal to meet with Le Devoir.

"There are so many people who want to talk to her. There are always a hundred people around her,” Richard Hastie, her deputy campaign manager, said after declining a request for an interview due to scheduling constraints, adding that many volunteers might feel uncomfortable around the media. 

Within the region, Lantsman's riding is atypical. Thornhill is one of the few places in the GTA that resisted the Liberal tidal wave that swept the region in 2015, and even as Justin Trudeau's Liberals held much of the region through the 2019 and 2021 elections, the riding remained Conservative.

The Conservatives know that they must win here to get back into power in Ottawa. Toronto's suburbs represent some 30 federal ridings (by comparison, the island of Montreal has 18; Laval, 4). These ridings are also strategically located between the countryside — which they have already won over — and Toronto, whose citizens usually lean to the left.

In any given election, these voters are among the most eager to be wooed by any given party, explains Peter Graefe, associate professor of political science at McMaster University.

Earlier this year, they overwhelmingly supported Doug Ford's provincial PC government, explains Graefe. "These are people who are paying hefty mortgages, and whose cars end up eating up their budgets. These are taxpayers for whom public services are important, but who want to pay as little as possible."

Just a few months ago, he would have expected a Tory sweep across this area at the federal level as well. But now that Donald Trump is sitting in the White House and Mark Carney is the leader of the Liberal Party, the prognosis has changed. 

“One might expect the Liberals to hold onto the ridings they already have, and maybe even pick up a few,” he said.

The CPC's last stand in the GTA

One must drive through the residential streets of Thornhill to realize that an electoral campaign is underway, since municipal bylaws prevent candidates from plastering their faces all over utility poles. Out on the lawns, Melissa Lantsman seems to be easily winning the placard war.

On her campaign leaflets, Pierre Poilievre's second-in-command spells out what she sees as the main issues of the campaign: antisemitism, uncontrolled immigration, drugs and rising crime. People who identify as Jewish make up 29.5% of the riding's population, the highest share in the country, according to Statistics Canada.

“She's wonderful!” says an enthusiastic Ronnie Newman, a pensioner out for a stroll in Pierre Elliott Trudeau Park, a tiny oasis of greenery squeezed between a boulevard and parking lots that stretch as far as the eye can see.

The man has already cast his vote, as he will be traveling to Israel on polling day. 

Even though he describes himself as “a liberal at heart,” he cannot bring himself to support Mark Carney, whom he accuses of being as dishonest as his predecessor, Justin Trudeau. He blames the Conservatives' lack of success in the Toronto area on immigration. 

“The Liberals brought in all these people. They said to them, ‘You come, you vote for me, I'll give you a car, a salary, I'll give you money for your children,’” laments Mr. Newman, who was born in South Africa.

There is no mistaking the CPC campaign posters near Promenade, a large shopping center surrounded by high-rise apartment complexes. “Personally, I don't like their leader... I think I'll vote for the other team,” says a woman walking her dog.

This temple of consumerism also houses a bona fide place of worship: a synagogue. In the food court, Sam, an elderly voter wearing a kippah, leans on the counter of a café. “The main issue causing concern in the riding is [Canada's] position on Israel and the ongoing war [in Gaza]. You know, Canada has changed, there's no denying it,” the man laments between sips of cappuccino.

The battle for the 'burbs

Despite a slight increase in support for the Liberal Party, the Canada338 poll aggregator still predicts a Conservative victory in Thornhill. However, that is no longer the case in the rest of the GTA.

Lantsman is using her local contacts to carry out small missions here and there in the surrounding ridings. But she admits it won’t be easy.

“This is an election that will be won out in the field. And it will be a close race in many places,” she acknowledged last week to Tory supporters. “Knock on 100 doors, make 100 calls, deliver 100 signs. We need to do everything we can,” she urged in a speech on Instagram.

Poilievre has spent about a third of the campaign in the GTA, with six visits since March 24. Carney has already been there four times. Incidentally, both leaders were there at the same time on Thursday.

Le Devoir was there when the Liberal leader visited Oakville, on the western side of the vast suburban expanse surrounding Ontario's capital. The local MP, Anita Anand, announced that she was leaving politics in January, when her party was at its lowest — before changing her mind in March, to run in the newly redrawn riding of Oakville East.

Did Mark Carney turn the tide for the Liberals? “Maybe,” she concedes. “But you can't look at the polls every day! That's not the right thing to do. Everyone I talk to is happy that I'm [running again]. And I'm happy too.”