Why an aging electorate may become a problem for democracy

Canada's older demographic is becoming increasingly influential with politicians — but their sensitivity to inflation and pension plans over other political priorities is increasingly contributing to diminishing economic growth, according to one expert.

Although life expectancy is increasing as a result of scientific progress and a general improvement in living conditions, this is occurring at the same time as a reduction in the number of children per family, causing the relative weight of older voters in the population to grow in wealthy economies, as well as in many developing countries.

For example, according to the Institut de la statistique du Québec, the proportion of people aged 65 and over in Quebec rose from 13 per cent in 2001 to over 21 per cent last year, and will approach a quarter of the population (24.4 per cent) in ten years' time.

For several years now, economists have been examining the consequences of such an aging population, notably on the available workforce, government tax revenues and spending, particularly on healthcare and long-term care.

Political scientists, for their part, have been interested in the growing strength of this demographic group, not only because of its increasing size, but also because it is more active than others in major electoral events. In the last Canadian general election in 2021, voter turnout among 65- to 74-year-olds was close to 75 per cent, compared with 59 per cent among 35- to 44-year-olds and less than 47 per cent among 18- to 24-year-olds.

Short-term gains, long-term pains

In a 2021 review of the scientific literature, Oxford University researchers looked at the impact that the growing political weight of these older voters might have on government policies affecting the economy and its growth prospects.

The increase in the number of older people mechanically translates into upward pressure on government spending on public pension and healthcare schemes, explained one of these experts, Tim Vlandas, at a conference at the Université de Montréal earlier this month. As the financial resources of governments are not infinite, any increase in those areas may come at the expense of other priorities, notably those affecting other groups in society, such as education and childcare.

This mechanical increase in certain age-related expenses is reinforced by the preferences of the greying electorate, who also tend to choose pensions and health spending over education and childcare when asked in polls. There is also greater sensitivity to keeping inflation low than to fighting unemployment or providing economic stimulus; older voters are less open to the idea of policies requiring short-term sacrifices in exchange for longer-term benefits.

It's a basic trend that comes with all sorts of nuances, notes Vlandas, since people can be sensitive to political and economic interests other than their own — either because they have children and grandchildren, or because it corresponds to their personal opinions and values. However, the underlying trend remains — and it's drawing more attention from politicians who want to get elected and remain in power.

Economic and democratic danger

Many of the priorities associated with the rise of grey power also tend to go hand in hand with less vigorous long-term economic growth, say the experts. When comparing countries, it's impossible to miss the correlation between an increase in the proportion of older people in the population and a decrease in real economic growth.

Vlandas said there is a causal link between the growing influence of grey power on government policy and the declining economic vigour of nations, but other participants at the conference earlier this month were more hesitant. So many factors can come into play when it comes to economic growth — even just in relation to population aging — that it's very difficult to isolate just one and prove its direct role in the matter, they argued.

The same researchers warn that this phenomenon, in which demographics pass through democracy to harm the economy, may also be accompanied by a backlash that goes in the opposite direction. Indeed, if the demographic shock makes governments less effective and responsive to the economic problems of the population at large, we shouldn't be surprised if a growing proportion of younger voters lose faith in democracy and capitalism, and turn to radical and extreme political options.