Observers note loss of 'green conscience' on debate stage

The issue of climate change will be further marginalized this election cycle without the Green Party’s presence at the leadership debates, some political scientists say.

Andrew Heffernan, an adjunct professor at the University of Ottawa and Carleton University, in a phone interview with Canada’s National Observer, said it’s unfortunate the Green Party will not be at the leaders’ debate because climate change has not been a prominent issue in this federal election, so far.

“It would probably be good to have that green conscience on the stage thinking about carbon policy, because we know that Pierre Poilievre is not going to be on stage talking about climate change,” Heffernan said.

In the 2021 election, basically every party, including Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives, ran on some version of a carbon price. There wasn’t a debate about whether climate change is real or not — or whether it was worth tackling — but rather a debate on how significant a policy we should have in place, Heffernan said, but now the political landscape is very different.

The Conservatives fiercely opposed the consumer carbon price and campaigned on killing it, the NDP backed away from the policy and Prime Minister Mark Carney eliminated it as his first move as prime minister in mid-March.

Things have gone backward, Heffernan said, as other issues have eclipsed the environment in immediate importance.

US President Donald Trump’s trade war has been — and continues to be — a defining issue this election cycle. Abacus Data polling from April indicates the top voting issues are cost of living, dealing with Trump, affordable housing, healthcare and economy. Climate change was the 11th most important factor.

However, climate is still higher on the agenda in Quebec, according to York University professor Mark Winfield — so, the environment may still get some attention from Bloc Quebecois leader Yves-Francois Blanchet.

But overall, this “further reinforces the marginalization of environment and climate change as an issue in the election,” Winfield said. “It's present as a subtext, because all this emphasis on oil and gas exports has huge implications for climate. But it's not being framed that way, and that connection is not being emphasized.”

Globally, clean energy is driving more investment than fossil fuels, according to a new report by think tank Clean Energy Canada. The analysis found Canada’s 10 largest non-US trade partners all have net-zero commitments and carbon pricing systems and roughly half apply carbon border adjustments (essentially a carbon price on imports) and have domestic EV requirements.

“If Canada is to repeal our carbon tax and not have more effective climate policy, it's going to cost us in the long run in almost intangible ways, but also in the shorter run, when we're trying to export normal goods and services with like-minded allies, like the countries in the EU,” Heffernan said. Canada’s 10 largest non-US trade partners are China, Mexico, the UK, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Brazil, Switzerland, and the Netherlands.

At a press conference Wednesday morning, Green Party co-leader Jonathan Pedneault called the debate commission’s decision to rescind the party’s debate invitation “undemocratic.”

The “last minute decision” — which arrived the morning the French language debate is set to go ahead in Montreal — is “unjust” and an attempt to silence the Green Party, said Pedneault. He said the Green Party met the requirements to participate.

Strategic advisor Rod Leggett issued a statement at 2:30 pm saying the commission reinterpreted the rules and revoked the invitation under pressure from the Green Party’s political opponents: the Bloc Quebecois and Conservatives.

To participate in the debates, parties must meet two of three conditions: They must have had one seat in the House of Commons, have at least four per cent national support 28 days before the election, or have endorsed candidates in at least 90 per cent of ridings 28 days before the election.

By the deadline set by the debate commission, the Green Party was polling at less than three per cent, and while it included a list of 340 candidate endorsements by the deadline, the party only has 232 candidates now running. In a phone interview with Canada’s National Observer, co-leader Elizabeth May said the Green Party did meet the third criteria by endorsing candidates in well over 90 per cent of the ridings — the rules’ language does not call for all the candidates to be registered on the ballot.

The truncated timeline and difficulties collecting signatures were factors that contributed to the Green Party only registering 232 candidates, but May said the party raised these challenges with Elections Canada and previously confirmed the party's eligibility for the leaders’ debate with the debate commission.

Pedneault, in an interview with Radio-Canada published on April 15, said candidates were held back in certain ridings, particularly where Conservatives had a high chance of winning. 

The commission’s decision said the party’s choice to intentionally reduce the number of candidates running in the election for strategic reasons is inconsistent with its measure of party viability: the third criteria.

May refuted the claim that her party made a “strategic decision” to hold back candidates in some ridings, calling it a “misunderstanding from one interview” that she spent all day yesterday trying to explain to the debate commission.

“There was no rule that said you have this many nominated candidates … this is outrageous,” May said. May and Pedneault are calling on the commission to reconsider. The debate commission directed Canada’s National Observer to its decision in response to several questions.

“We respect the decision of the debate commission,” Jennifer Howard, NDP campaign director, said in an emailed statement to Canada’s National Observer.

“As an independent, non-partisan body, it is their job to ensure all political parties follow the same criteria for inclusion in the debates. We reject any attempt to undermine or politicize their decision-making.”

The Bloc Québécois and Conservative Party did not respond to requests for comment.

“While it is important that all criteria be honoured, we are disappointed in this last-minute decision, and would have supported the Green Party remaining in these debates if consulted,” said Jean-Christophe Armstrong, Liberal Party spokesperson, in an emailed statement to Canada’s National Observer.

“We hope that Canadians' priorities for protecting the environment and fighting climate change will continue to have a prominent role in this debate.”

University of Ottawa Professor Nomi Claire Lazar said although it is a big blow to not be part of the leaders’ debate, it’s possible the Green Party will be able to make something out of the media attention this debacle has garnered.

“This may be the most press coverage the Green Party receives through the election, and it might generate sympathy votes from Green-tempted electors for the remaining candidates,” Lazar said.

May said being shut out of tonight’s debate will have a major impact on the Green Party’s chances in Quebec.

— With files from the Canadian Press

Natasha Bulowski / Local Journalism Initiative / Canada’s National Observer