Keep climate a national priority
All federal party leaders say Canada must fend off the US from a position of strength, but whether new fossil fuel infrastructure can achieve that was hotly debated at the leaders’ debate Thursday evening.
The first shot came from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. Needing to land a knockout blow on front-running Liberal Leader Mark Carney, Poilievre said while Carney claims to want to deal with the US from a position of strength, Liberal “anti-energy” laws like the federal Impact Assessment Act were preventing new projects from being built.
“You supported blocking pipelines in Canada that gave Donald Trump and the US a near-monopoly over our energy, and now you want to keep in place Bill C-69, the Liberal no-new-development law that blocks us from shipping our resources overseas,” he said.
Several major fossil fuel infrastructure projects have been built with that impact assessment law in place, including the Trans Mountain expansion project, LNG Canada, the Coastal GasLink pipeline, as well as major project approvals like Bay du Nord off the coast of Newfoundland and Labrador.
Poilievre said his party would protect the environment, but that he believes Canada exporting LNG to other countries that burn coal, like India, would be a way to lower global emissions.
That view is not supported by experts.
According to a recent study from Cornell University, emissions from American LNG are 33 per cent higher than coal, when processing and shipping are taken into account. The findings add to a growing pile of evidence undermining the argument put forward by fossil fuel companies that LNG can be a “bridge fuel” for countries burning dirtier fuels.
In China, for instance, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) found growing LNG imports have not reduced the country’s coal demand due to cost, energy security concerns and the “meteoric rise” of renewables.
India specifically is working to reduce its imports of fossil fuels to protect its energy security, undermining the proposal Poilierve laid out.
Carney’s ‘all-of-the-above’ approach
Carney said he would work with provinces to streamline environmental assessments, but when it comes to energy he took an all-of-the-above approach — reiterating his campaign promise for Canada to be an energy superpower in both clean and conventional energy.
“I'm interested in getting energy infrastructure built,” he said. “That means pipelines, that means carbon capture and storage, that means electricity grids.”
Carney said the oil industry in particular must become low-carbon and endorsed the Pathways Alliance project as one his government would work to advance if elected.
“One of the big projects we need to move forward with is carbon capture and storage — the Pathways project — so that we have oil and gas that is competitive not just today, but 10 years from now, 20 years from now,” he said. “As the world uses less, we want to have more market share.”
If the country boosts fossil fuel production, even if paired with carbon capture technology, global carbon emissions would still rise because the vast majority of emissions from fossil fuels comes when the fuel is burned. Climate science is clear that the planet will continue to warm to dangerous levels — leading to worsening extreme weather, premature deaths, lost species and disrupted economies — until greenhouse gas emissions reach net-zero (in other words, reduced until any remaining emissions created are offset by their removal from the atmosphere).
Singh and Blanchet focus on pipelines
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, whose party has been relatively quiet on the climate issue throughout the campaign, said he doesn’t know what Poilievre is complaining about when he criticizes the Liberals for being anti-energy when the Liberal government bought the Trans Mountain expansion project.
“While these two compete about who is more pro-pipeline … I think what we need to do, if we're talking about energy in our country, is we need to build an east-west grid,” he said.
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet noted that because pipelines typically take many years to build, new pipelines are an irrelevant tool to deal with US President Donald Trump.
“We're in a very strange denial situation about climate change, which still exists and is very expensive,” he said. “And I'm sorry to crash your party guys, but you are telling fairytales. Clean oil and gas is a fairytale. Large scale carbon sequestration is a fairy tale.”
‘Surreal’
“Only Mr. Blanchet called out that ‘clean oil and gas’ is a fairy tale,” said Kathryn Harrison, a professor of political science at the University of British Columbia. “It underscores the persistence of the largest national parties in ignoring the downstream emissions from Canada’s oil and gas exports, and the economic risk that comes with that as the rest of the world acts to mitigate climate change.”
Harrison said that it felt “surreal” that climate change took a backseat to debates over building fossil fuel pipelines given that in the past four years the country has watched Jasper burn, record breaking wildfires and unsafe air quality, and over 600 people dying in a heat dome in BC.
“Overall, what a sad state of affairs for Canadian political discourse on climate and energy policy,” said Caroline Brouillette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada. “The conversation was disconnected from the state of the world in 2025 — and from the opportunities Canada should be seizing to build a truly resilient economy.”
Martin Olszynski, an associate professor at the University of Calgary, told Canada’s National Observer that while the business case for many of these fossil fuel projects don’t exist, this election isn’t about convincing people as much as it is comforting them.
“If the polls are saying a majority of Canadians are giving pipelines a second thought, you’d think twice before deciding to contradict them as a campaign strategy,” he said.
Comments
My only disappointment was that somebody didn't deliver a zinger about the last pipeline costing Canadian taxpayers $50B, that's nearly $4000/household. That they would have no trouble *approving* them, but there would be no more "free money for billionaire oil investors", something like that - a line to make even Conservatives thoughtful.
Because it's clear now that no more pipelines will PAY for themselves, not after that one. Or, at least, no sane investor would try to build one, knowing the government will just let you go broke if you screw up as badly as TMX.
Blanchett said what INVESTORS are now thinking, if you ask me. Without government paying, large oil infrastructure is over, and gas nearly is. (Global oil sales will decline in a year or two at most; gas has three more after that.)
Jagmeet Singh came close with 40 billion. He was busy interrupting another debater so it probably got lost in the noise.
Two things. First, the debate and some of the more intelligent online comments listing Poilievre's voting record made it very plain that the Conservatives must not form government -- any government at any time -- until the Maple Maga effect has run its course and the social conservative rump have lost their energy.
Second, Carney's very generalized inclusion of oil & gas was very disappointing. That is already a big hit to his long record of promoting renewable energy and understanding the costs of climate change before entering politics. If he wants to preserve some kind of legacy, tattered as it may be, he will need to pull a one eighty on pipelines, CCS and the rip 'n ship model of raw resource extraction early in his mandate, should he win a majority. The escape hatch could be having "sober second thought" on the exorbitant costs and the erosion of international demand for oil as renewables, primarily solar, eat away at the periphery. Carney's a finance guy. He understands benefit vs cost and supply & demand. There is the theory that he is playing both sides as a campaign strategy, a technique the Liberals have perfected even without campaigns, to attract moderate conservatives who don't care about climate as much as they care about dealing with the Trump crisis. If Carney continues down the carbon path long after the election without enough electrification and value added economic activity to counter it, then I'll burn his book 'Value(s)'.
A couple of post scripts. Singh is fighting for his political life and to keep the NDP relevant. I wish him the best because they are an important part of the Canadian political landscape and have lots of experience backing Liberal governments with conditions.
Blanchet did well and can afford to speak the truth to the nation because his influence is limited to Quebec. If Carney cultivates too many pipelines in reality after the election, and not just in campaign rhetoric, Quebec will still find it easier than any other province to electrify its entire economy while banning all new fossil fuel infrastructure from within its borders in defiance to federal initiatives. Quebec could be a top leader in decarbonization and a role model for the nation on fighting climate change.
Lastly, no matter how much political capital is spent on fossil fuels (perhaps "gambled" is a better word) the world economy will have the last say. The move away from carbon fuels is inexorable, though it really does need to be ramped up. There's already a shocking number of stranded assets that exist and are in the making in this country, and a lot of professional analysts who would be justified with a mass chorus of I-told-you-so's once export demand declines.