This is a climate election

With US tariffs hitting Canada amid an affordability crisis, climate change has declined among Canadian voters’ top-of-mind concerns. Yet the parties are offering very different climate and energy commitments in the federal election. In other words, this election is about climate change, whether voters are aware or not. 

We compared the parties’ positions on climate change, focusing on the three parties most likely to either form a government (Liberals or Conservatives) or sign a confidence agreement with a minority government (NDP). As professors, we would not give any of the parties an A grade on climate action. However, we anticipate that emissions would continue to decline under a Liberal government, but not under a Conservative one.

Paris Agreement Targets

Starting with the big picture: Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has dodged questions about the party’s commitment to Canada’s existing Paris Agreement targets. Liberal Leader Mark Carney — a former UN special envoy on climate finance — has not questioned Canada’s 2030 or 2035 targets. The NDP has called for tightening the 2035 emissions reduction target by five percent.

Carbon Pricing

Economy-wide carbon pricing has been the centrepiece of the federal climate plan to date. The consumer carbon tax was repealed on April 1, and none of the parties is proposing to bring it back.

The industrial carbon pricing system remains in place, however. Industrial polluters pay a carbon tax if they emit above sector-specific performance benchmarks. The Canadian Climate Institute reports that industrial carbon pricing is the single most impactful federal climate policy, with the potential to account for up to half of Canada’s emissions reductions this decade, and (thanks to those performance benchmarks) at minimal cost to consumers or risk of companies moving abroad. 

The Conservative Party has committed to eliminating the federal industrial carbon pricing backstop. We are skeptical that provinces that grudgingly established their own industrial carbon pricing systems under the threat of imposition of a federal system will continue to increase the carbon price and strengthen benchmarks absent that threat. Indeed, following the Conservative Party’s announcement, Saskatchewan preemptively repealed its industrial pricing system. 

The Liberals and NDP have both promised to maintain the industrial carbon pricing system and the Liberal platform calls for strengthening the system to establish a credible long-term price signal.

Regulating Emissions

Production and transport of oil and gas is responsible for the largest share of national emissions at 30 per cent. In 2024, the federal government proposed an oil and gas emissions cap, but it was not finalized before the election. The Conservative Party has promised not to adopt the oil and gas emissions cap, and has not proposed alternative actions. Both the Liberals and NDP have committed to follow through on the policy. The Liberals have also committed to update methane regulations for the sector.

In contrast to the Liberals and NDP, the Conservative leader also opposes the existing mandate for electric vehicle sales to reach 100 per cent of passenger vehicle sales by 2035. The Liberals are promising investments in EV charging infrastructure, while NDP has called for renewed EV rebates, increased to $10,000 for made-in-Canada vehicles.

Public Spending

The parties have all committed to public funding for climate action, but for different recipients. The Conservatives’ “technology not taxes” slogan refers to a commitment to replace carbon pricing with public support for industrial emissions reductions via tax credits. However, it is unclear why industry would choose to contribute any share of the costs of emissions reductions in the absence of a tax or emissions cap. To date, the Conservative Party has not provided an estimate of either the cost of the proposed subsidies or the expected impact on emissions.

The Liberal party promises to partner with provinces and industry to expedite public funding for carbon capture, backstopped by the oil and gas emissions cap. It is unclear whether the Liberals would commit additional funds beyond those already budgeted. The party also promised $1 billion to retrofit low- and middle-income housing, to be funded by industrial polluters through reforms to the industrial carbon pricing system. 

The NDP have focused on consumer subsidies, proposing $18 billion over 10 years to retrofit 3.3 million homes, which they propose to fund by eliminating fossil fuel subsidies.

How do the parties’ visions for Canada’s economic future compare? 

The election is understandably focused on Canada’s economic future, including that of the oil and gas industry. However, global efforts to mitigate climate change also have implications for Canada’s economic future. In its 2024 World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency anticipates a peak in global demand for oil and gas by 2030, as the world transitions to renewable energy and a low-carbon economy. At the same time, Canada’s own transition to net-zero requires emissions reductions, primarily via transition of industry, transportation, and buildings from fossil fuels to renewable electricity. 

The Conservative Party is all-in on oil and gas, including acceding to oil and gas CEOs’ calls to repeal the Impact Assessment Act and the tanker ban on BC’s north coast, cancel the oil and gas emissions cap, expedite approval of new export pipelines and LNG terminals, and provide loan guarantees for Indigenous resource development. The party does not acknowledge the possibility of a decline in global demand for Canadian oil and gas over the multi-decade life of those projects, and says little about how First Nations rights will be respected. 

The Liberal Party’s vision of Canada as an “energy superpower” stresses the importance of maintaining competitiveness for Canadian oil and gas, but the Liberal platform places greater emphasis on clean growth opportunities, including an east-west electricity grid, critical minerals, battery manufacturing, biofuels, and high-speed rail. The Liberal platform does not mention either pipelines nor LNG. However, on the campaign trail, Mark Carney has emphasized transporting Canadian oil eastward to displace imports, in contrast to Conservative support for export pipelines. 

The Liberals promise to release sustainable investment guidelines, and to protect the competitiveness of Canadian industry via a carbon border adjustment mechanism, a tool that Europe is introducing in 2026.

The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh has stated that pipelines are “not a priority,” instead proposing an east-west clean energy grid and achieving 100 per cent non-emitting electricity by 2045.  

Summary

The political parties have presented dramatically different visions for Canada’s climate goals and economic future. 

The Conservative Party promises to repeal industrial carbon pricing, Canada’s single most effective climate policy, among other measures, with no credible plan to make up for the lost emissions reductions. Canada’s emissions will likely increase as a result. 

The Liberal Party is staying the course with policies that promise emissions reductions by 2030 and beyond. Should the election yield a Liberal minority, the government would find support for that approach from the NDP and, presumably, the Greens as well.

Kathryn Harrison is a professor of political science and McLean Family Chair in Canadian Studies at the University of British Columbia.

Simon Donner is a climate scientist and professor at the University of British Columbia, and Director of the University’s Climate Solutions Research Collective.

Although Simon Donner is co-chair of the federal Net Zero Advisory Body and Kathryn Harrison is a member of the BC Climate Solutions Council, they are writing as individuals, not on behalf of those organizations.