What’s in Mark Carney’s climate plan?

Liberal Leader Mark Carney’s plan to address climate change is something of a Rorschach test, with the platform laying out a vision that can be interpreted in contradictory ways.

The platform includes commitments to advance major “nation-building” projects like high speed rail, an east-west power grid, producing hydrogen in Edmonton and prioritizing clean and Canadian procurement for these projects. Liberals are also pitching investments in EV charging networks, issuing “transition bonds” to attract more finance to the energy transition, prefabricated and modular housing to curb construction emissions and strengthening the industrial carbon price. 

But the platform also leaves lots of room for interpretation about the role of fossil fuels in the Canadian economy.

Even though much of the platform describes modernizing the Canadian economy and reducing emissions, there is reason to be concerned that oil and gas could feature heavily in a Carney government because of his commitment to Canada becoming an energy superpower for both clean and conventional energy, says Keith Stewart, senior strategist with Greenpeace Canada. 

A commitment to cap oil and gas emissions is notably absent from the platform — despite being a signature climate policy from the Trudeau era that has slowly worked through government bureaucracy for four years and is still not yet finalized. 

“We've heard Carney waffle away from it and then waffle back towards it, and what I am expecting is some kind of emissions cap but with more flexibility mechanisms, which would basically weaken the cap,” Stewart said. “But the fact that it's not in the platform is concerning.”

Stewart suspects its omission may be a strategy to avoid giving the Conservatives ammunition; the party has accused Carney of being “sneaky” in eliminating the consumer carbon tax while leaving plans in place to cap emissions and maintain the industrial pricing system. 

“Is that them trying to not give Conservatives anything to latch onto as they just want to cruise to victory and then they'll do what they're going to do? Because they also don't say they're not going to do it.”

Asked to clarify whether the Liberal Party is still committed to the policy, a spokesperson for Carney pointed to comments the leader made in early April — in which the leader did not confirm he will proceed with the cap. 

“My government is focused on results, and the results of the current consultation on the emissions cap will reflect the importance of efficiently and fairly achieving these objectives,” Carney said on April 9. “My government will work closely with our oil and gas industry to reduce their emissions over time, so that Canadian conventional energy will supply the world for decades to come.”

The spokesperson said Carney is still committed to the cap, but it was left out of the platform because it was a promise made by the previous government. However, a number of policies announced under Justin Trudeau are included in Carney’s platform, such as continuing investment tax credits for clean electricity, clean hydrogen, electric vehicle supply chains and carbon capture, utilization and storage, as well a commitment to finalizing sustainable investment guidelines that had previously been included in Chrystia Freeland’s mandate letter as finance minister. 

Missed opportunities

Laura Tozer, an assistant professor at the University of Toronto specializing in climate politics, energy transition and decarbonization, told Canada’s National Observer she doesn’t want to see backsliding on emission-reduction policies and so it would’ve been good to see a commitment to strengthening the emissions cap in the platform. 

“But I also don't want to put too much pressure on one thing as the thing that's going to deliver the wind-down of the fossil fuel industry,” she said. By putting too much emphasis on a single policy, it can distract from the suite of measures that are required to transition the country’s economy in a climate safe manner. 

Tozer said the Liberal platform contains many good things for climate, specifically referring to electric vehicle support, power grid modernization, investments in rural transit and phasing out fossil fuel use from federal buildings. The fact that climate policies were not siloed in a climate section of the platform, but rather infused across policy areas, she says, indicates Carney’s Liberals see climate concerns as something to integrate across government efforts. But there was an opportunity to put forward a more credible plan too.

“The Liberal platform in some ways shows some missed opportunities to advance this vision of how climate action can bring economic development and affordability for Canadians because it … is mired in propping up dying fossil fuel industries,” she said.

For Tozer, Carney’s pitch to make Canada an energy superpower in both clean and fossil fuels is a major concern because climate science is clear that to avoid catastrophic warming a managed decline of the fossil fuel industry is required. 

For that reason, the big missed opportunity for Carney was to redefine what being an “energy superpower” means in 2025, Tozer said. 

“What an energy superpower should mean for Canada in this day and age is support for renewable energy expansion, remaking our communities in ways that are sustainable and a managed decline of the fossil fuel industries that are introducing all of this risk into our economy,” she said. 

The risk to the Canadian economy by staying in the oil and gas business is severe because as demand for oil and gas drops as forecasted, the very expensive infrastructure will become stranded, meaning investors won’t recoup costs. That risk is especially acute for Canadian financial institutions. 

At a Senate banking committee meeting in May, Brussels-based Finance Watch chief economist Thierry Philipponnat compared the fossil fuel risk to the 2008 housing crisis, calling it imperative that Canada start seriously tackling fossil fuel risks to the financial sector. 

“If we don’t, it’s certain that, in human terms, we’ll have a new financial crisis on top of the climate crisis,” he said. “Exposure to fossil fuels is equivalent to the amount of subprime mortgages that triggered the crisis 12 or 14 years ago.”

Previously, Carney has said he does not support legislation like the Climate Aligned Finance Act that would require federally regulated financial institutions, such as banks and pension funds, to align their portfolios with Canada’s emission reduction targets. Carney told a Senate committee last year he disagrees with the bill because it “dictates” how banks should adjust their practices with “punitive” rules.

Nation-building projects

Stewart called the platform a document designed to be open to interpretation, particularly when it comes to building major national projects without detailing what those are. 

All major parties are leaning into nation-building projects as a way to strengthen the Canadian economy in the face of economic aggression from US President Donald Trump. Carney’s top rival, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, outlined in early April 10 projects he would rapidly approve, including LNG Canada Phase 2, Suncor’s proposed bitumen mine expansion and an all-season road to access critical minerals in northern Ontario’s Ring of Fire. (LNG Canada Phase 2 is waiting on a decision from its owner Shell, not the federal government, to proceed.) 

Carney hasn’t outlined which projects he is focused on, Stewart said. 

“So it's a question of have they not decided yet?” he said. “Or is it they're just not telling us so that they can allow everyone to see what they want to see?”

At last week’s debate, Carney endorsed the Pathways Alliance’s carbon capture megaproject as something his government would advance if elected. 

​​“One of the big projects we need to move forward with is carbon capture and storage — the Pathways project — so that we have oil and gas that is competitive not just today, but 10 years from now, 20 years from now,” he said. “As the world uses less, we want to have more market share.”

To achieve that, the Liberal platform proposes extending tax credits for carbon capture investments, using “carbon contracts for difference” to guarantee a price on carbon to derisk emission reduction investments and for Canada to be “a world leader in responsible energy production” by using carbon capture, utilization and storage technology. 

With less than a week until voters head to the polls and the leaders’ debates in the rearview mirror, platforms are one of the last opportunities federal parties have to earn support from the public. 

An Angus Reid poll published Monday found little is budging voters. Carney’s Liberals maintain about the same lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives they enjoyed at the start of the campaign — at 44 per cent to 39 per cent. 

Nationally, support for the NDP, Bloc and Greens have similarly held steady.