In Edmonton Griesbach, the NDP incumbent hopes to hold on

Homeless encampments overflow the streets of Chinatown, located in the most disadvantaged area of Edmonton's northern Griesbach riding. In the street, a group of homeless people consume drugs and alcohol in full view, in the middle of the afternoon. Some lose their balance, while others hurl insults at passers-by.

The scene takes place in front of a nearby Thai restaurant, whose windows open directly onto the sidewalk. Inside, the owner — eager to remain anonymous to preserve his restaurant's reputation — watches them, then lets out a long sigh. “We're becoming like Vancouver,” he says.

Preoccupied with his restaurant and his day-to-day concerns, he admits he's not in the mood to follow the current federal campaign. In any case, he believes that no party will be able to solve the city's homelessness and drug addiction problems, the most glaring issues in his eyes. “No matter what they do, it won't change a thing. No one will be able to solve the crisis, unless they put a complete stop to the fentanyl trade,” he says.

A few meters away, Ravendra Chand, the owner of a small convenience store, makes the same point. Juggling two jobs, he says that following the election campaign is at the bottom of his list of priorities. “People here don't have time to follow politics,” he explains shyly, referring to those like him who are struggling to make ends meet.

The socio-demographic issues specific to this riding — which encompasses some of Edmonton's most disadvantaged neighbourhoods — present a challenge to anybody hoping to get out the vote.

Once again this year, an extremely close battle is shaping up between incumbent NDP MP Blake Desjarlais and Conservative Kerry Diotte, who was twice elected to Parliament by the riding in 2015 and 2019. According to projections by poll aggregator Canada338, the two parties are currently neck-and-neck. The Liberals are out of luck in this two-way race.

In 2021, Desjarlais wrested the riding from Diotte with a slim lead of around 1,500 votes.

Encouraging the vote

At the NDP riding office closer to downtown, dozens of orange signs line the building's windows. It's almost empty inside, except for a few volunteers.

They're under no illusions: the national figures don't bode well for the party, which is projected for a dramatic decline from 24 to just 5 MPs, according to current figures. Holding this riding is even more crucial to the NDP's survival in that context. That's why a team of some 50 volunteers is out in the field encouraging people to vote. In the 2021 election, voter turnout in the riding was ten points below the national average.

Back from his shift, 70-year-old volunteer Ken Robinson is already preparing for his next tasks. The man who has just returned from installing some thirty election signs in the area makes no secret of his nervousness as Election Day approaches.

“On election day, I'll be running from one polling station to the next to collect the voters' lists. We'll compile the data to see who has voted, so we can contact those who haven't,” he explains. “Mobilizing voters will be crucial in this election. That will really be the key.”

This mission is now at the heart of the NDP's strategy, and not just for volunteers. That same morning, Desjarlais himself was at Londonderry Mall, just minutes from his campaign office, inviting passers-by to vote at advance polls at the Elections Canada office set up in the mall.

“People don't know their basic rights. They think it takes a million pieces of ID and documents to vote. It's a real barrier,” the 31-year-old MP told Le Devoir.

The Conservative Party did not respond to our requests to meet with the riding's local candidate or his team.

Voting strategically

Another major challenge for the NDP campaign is to convince left-leaning voters not only to turn out at the polls, but also to vote strategically to avoid a split vote.

While voting for Mark Carney's Liberals may be tempting in the context of the trade war, many progressive voters fail to grasp that this could give the Conservatives an advantage in this tight two-way race, argues Hans Smits, another septuagenarian involved as a volunteer in the local campaign.

“We hear it a lot when we go door-to-door. We explain to people that voting for the Liberal candidate means giving victory to the Conservatives. Then we give them this,” he says, pulling a small orange poster from his binder. On the cardboard, a graph illustrates the 2021 results, highlighting how much of the Liberal vote (around 13%), in third place, can tip the balance.

For Ken Robinson, the stakes go far beyond the local battle. With tears in his eyes, he confesses to dreading the end of an era when the NDP still had room to maneuver in Ottawa, when the party and Justin Trudeau's Liberals were bound by an agreement of support and trust.

“We got dental care and universal drug coverage. We really got things done,” he says, apologizing for his “tears of passion.”

“It's so important to me. And now it's [the future of] the whole country at stake. We've got the idiot south of the border, and who knows what he'll do?”