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The riding that kicked off this election cycle will be one to watch tonight. Toronto–St. Paul’s slipped from Liberal hands in a stunning upset during a byelection last summer under the former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership, setting off a crisis of confidence within the party.
The longtime Liberal stronghold, held for more than 30 years by former MP Carolyn Bennett, flipped Conservative in June 2024 when Don Stewart narrowly beat Liberal candidate Leslie Church by a slim margin — 633 votes. Many saw the loss as a sign of Trudeau's falling popularity, as voters grew frustrated over inflation, the housing crisis, and calls for change.
At the time of her narrow defeat, Church — a former top aide to then–Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland — said the close result was disappointing but described it as the beginning of a renewed effort rather than the end. She indicated that voters in Toronto–St. Paul’s had sent a clear message that the Liberals needed to re-earn their trust, and she pledged to continue working toward that goal.
Conservatives took a different message: that the upset signaled a sea change in voters’ feelings about the Liberal government.
“Congratulations to Common Sense Conservative candidate @donstewartTO on a shocking upset in Toronto–St. Paul’s, where people voted to axe the tax, build the homes, fix the budget, and stop the crime,” Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre posted on X following the victory. “Here is the verdict: Trudeau can’t go on like this. He must call a carbon tax election now.”
Political science experts interviewed by Canada's National Observer say the Liberals are well positioned to win back Toronto–St. Paul’s tonight.
Peter Graefe, a political science professor at McMaster University, said voters often approach byelections and general elections differently. “In a by-election, you get a chance to send a message without affecting which party is in government,” Graefe said. “You can punish a party that seems to not be listening, even if it is otherwise your preferred party.”
The byelection in Toronto–St. Paul’s was likely seen as a referendum on Trudeau’s leadership, Graefe said, but in the general election, voters are more focused on choosing the party they want to form government and the broader national issues at stake. This time, he added, national issues like Canada–US relations have become much more central.
“While the campaign has broadened slightly to more issues, the dominant one remains tied to the relationship with the United States, and has made the question of leader competence very central,” Graefe said. “People are fearful of the consequences of the deteriorating relationship with the US, and this has also led them to narrow their focus to the two leading parties, rather than looking at third parties like the NDP, Greens or PPC.”
Now, with Mark Carney leading the Liberals, the political landscape looks different. While affordability and housing remain major concerns, voters are also worried about a new wave of economic uncertainty tied to US President Donald Trump's threats of tariffs targeting Canada’s economy, particularly the auto sector, which Ontario’s economy — and parts of Toronto’s workforce — heavily rely on.
Trump's rhetoric, including referring to Canada as the “51st state,” has also angered voters across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), like the rest of the country.
At campaign events in the GTA, Carney has pushed a strong message that he’ll stand up to Trump and protect Canadian jobs. He’s promised a plan to counter the impact of US tariffs and defend Canada's economy.
Meanwhile, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is promising what he calls “common sense solutions” to cost-of-living pressures facing Canadians, including removing sales tax on newly built homes and lowering income taxes.
Looking ahead to tonight's results, Graefe said it is very likely that the Liberals will win back Toronto–St. Paul’s.
“The real fight is in Toronto’s suburbs,” Graefe said. “If the Conservatives win this seat, they will also have swept the suburbs en route to a majority government. If the Liberals hold their seats (or increase them) in the suburbs, they will win back this seat as well.”
Church, running for the Liberals, and Stewart, running again for the Conservatives, face off in a riding where new concerns — about affordability, jobs, and relations with the US — could influence how people vote.
The race is a rematch between Stewart and Church, with candidates from the NDP, Green Party, People's Party, Marxist-Leninist Party, and Canadian Future Party also on the ballot.
Winning back Toronto–St. Paul’s is important for the Liberals if they want a path to form the next government. Toronto and the GTA have been key to their success in the last three elections.
Given how close the race was last year, tonight’s result will show whether the Liberals are rebuilding support under Carney — or if the Conservatives are making real gains in the city.
Graefe said polling suggests Mark Carney has not only reconnected with the Liberal base but also attracted NDP and Green voters eager to block a Conservative government. He added that Pierre Poilievre’s attempts to weaken Jagmeet Singh may have unintentionally strengthened Carney’s position. “The question is how does Carney keep this over-broad coalition together if he wins a majority tonight.”
Peggy Nash, a professor at Toronto Metropolitan University with expertise in Canadian politics, a former NDP MP and leadership candidate to replace the late leader Jack Layton, also said the riding would likely return to the Liberals, noting it had been a longtime stronghold before last year’s upset. “Now with Carney leading the Libs it gives people who are traditional Liberal voters a reason to return.”
Final results are expected between 9:30 p.m. and 11 p.m. ET.
Abdul Matin Sarfraz / Canada’s National Observer / Local Journalism Initiative.
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