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When the fog lifts, you can see the smoking chimneys of the many factories owned by the multinational Irving company that surround the city of Saint John, NB. On one side of the harbor are those of Canada's largest crude oil refinery and, on the other, those of its large pulp and paper mill — a constant reminder to residents that thousands of them depend on Irving for their livelihoods.
Seafood, steel, wood, paper and oil: Saint John's industries export a large portion of their production to the United States — more than 80% of Irving Oil's barrels and 96% of its total goods, according to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce (CCC). For all these reasons, the city of just over 70,000 people ranks at the top of the CCC's list of Canadian cities most vulnerable to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump's United States.
And Saint John residents fear job losses if the tariffs drive businesses into troubled waters, former city mayor Don Darling said.
Everyone is talking about the tariffs here, given the huge Irving factories, confirms Ann, a woman in her seventies encountered Saturday evening outside the Imperial Theater.
“Definitely,” Jaime said, a bartender at a pub in downtown historic Saint John: “My customers are blue-collar workers. They talk about it a lot.”
In fact, the impact of the tariffs is already being felt, according to Mel Burns, a construction contractor. Some of her clients rushed to have work done before material prices rose, but others preferred to cancel their contracts.
Shannon Merrifield, CEO of the Saint John Chamber of Commerce, confirms the “grave concern” of businesses in the port city. “People are worried,” she says, because New Brunswick is “interconnected with Maine” and dependent on the US state. She has noticed a slowdown in investment, with businesses “watching their wallets.”
Tariffs at the forefront
Nestled in a hollow of the Bay of Fundy, the city was already weakened by rising living costs before the tariffs arrived, adding to the prevailing anxiety. Makeshift camps for homeless people are clearly visible along the roadsides.
“School lunches have become lighter recently,” said Anne, a high school teacher.
But the city is planning and organizing, Merrifield said. Speaking on the sidelines of an evening event attended by a host of local candidates for the federal election, she argues that Saint John can pull through because of its port — the third largest in Canada in terms of tonnage — which is well positioned to ship goods to destinations other than the United States. She urges candidates to take up the demands of local businesses: fewer barriers to interprovincial trade, more infrastructure and increased immigration to meet the needs of businesses.
There have not yet been any job losses caused by the tariffs, said Jennifer Murray, Atlantic region director for Unifor, but she fears multiple levels of repercussions for workers, which could spill over into the hotel sector. She wants elected officials to use the money from the counter-tariffs to help workers.
Since the 25% tariffs and counter-tariffs also apply to aluminum, Canadian brewers fear an increase in the cost of their beer, since cans are mainly manufactured in the United States. Moosehead Brewery, as old as Canada itself, has its headquarters and main facilities in the New Brunswick city. The company with the iconic moose head logo responded to the tariffs with sarcasm, putting up for sale the “presidential pack,” a huge crate containing 1,461 cans of beer, “Just enough Canadian Lagers to get through a full presidential term” at a rate of one beer a day.
A divided city
The city of Saint John has two federal ridings, Saint John-St. Croix and Saint John-Kennebecasis. When Parliament was dissolved, the former was held by Conservative John Williamson and the latter by Liberal Wayne Long. If election projections are to be believed, both are expected to be re-elected on April 28. Residents feel their city is at a disadvantage compared to other cities in the Atlantic provinces, which is why they alternate between voting Conservative and Liberal, according to Ann, a voter we met in a small shopping center.
In a hamburger restaurant on Main Street, where customers can keep an eye on the Irving pulp and paper mill, workers from the industrial plant come to eat lunch. “This is a conservative, blue-collar province,” one of them summed up before tempering his remarks: ”No matter who wins, this is Irving's town. It owns everything. What Irving wants, it gets.” He believes the Liberal Party of Canada will win the election because he saw its leader, Mark Carney, hold a campaign event at the Irving Shipbuilding yard in Halifax alongside the company's CEO.
Matt Lanigan hopes the city will be completely painted blue. The industrial mechanic believes the Conservative Party is “best for workers.” He says that since 2015, his purchasing power has only declined under a Liberal government that he believes is throwing money around. He believes the Conservatives, who promise to cut taxes and get rid of the carbon tax, which he said should leave him with more money in his pocket.
Other workers in heavy industries in the port city also prefer Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. Some describe him as a very down-to-earth leader who emphasizes family values and his modest origins “like us” — unlike the wealthy banker Carney, they say. Many of these men are not opposed to US tariffs: they believe Canada should do the same and promote domestic manufacturing.
But others trust the Liberal leader more to ensure their city's growth and “stand up to Trump,” as Anjaila puts it. Her friend Anne prefers the Green Party, but says she has already voted for the Liberals to get rid of the Conservatives, who she says are “too right-wing” and don't respect women's or gay rights, and she is prepared to do so again. Debbie Smith will also vote red: she is impressed by Carney because he has already taken action, she says, notably by quickly strengthening trade ties with Europe. “He's the most experienced” for the colossal task ahead of Canada, added Wilhelm Postma.
“These are crucial elections,” concludes Murray, because we need to ”redefine our economic relationship with the United States.”
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