Split vote lifted Gunn to victory despite controversy

Controversial Conservative candidate Aaron Gunn ended his successful campaign the same way he started it: by keeping his whereabouts secret and avoiding questions from the media.

Gunn, whose inflammatory social media history drew national attention and widespread calls for his removal as candidate, was elected in North Island-Powell River with 39 per cent of the vote. He flipped the riding, defeating NDP candidate Tanille Johnston, who garnered 33 per cent of the vote. Liberal Jennifer Lash carried 26 per cent and Green Jessica Wegg drew 2 per cent. 

Early campaigning helped Gunn, when the Liberal Party was still looking for candidates in many BC ridings as late as December, said Mario Canseco, pollster and the president of Research Co., a public opinion firm. Lash was nominated as the Liberal candidate in early March.

“He was one of the first people to raise his hand and say he wanted to run with Pierre Poilievre. That gives you an advantage that is very hard to match," Canseco said.

The election results suggest Gunn also benefitted greatly from a vote split between the NDP and the newly popular Liberals. Gunn improved Conservative support by three per cent over the 2021 election. 

“This was a very unusual election. It broke all the models. We saw the NDP collapse to a historic low... [it was] very binary, almost like a US election. You’re either voting Liberal, or you’re voting Conservative,” said Quito Maggi, chairman and CEO of Political Intelligence, a consultancy specializing in political campaigns, policy and public opinion.

Nearly half of Canadians surveyed at exit polls by his company considered themselves strategic voters, Maggi said. In Western Canada, especially in BC, the NDP vote collapse allowed the Conservatives to win. 

Confusion was also caused by conflicting polls in the North Island riding: Research Co. had the NDP in second place, while Mainstreet Research showed the Liberals in second. That uncertainty led to strategic voters backing the wrong party, splitting the vote and helping the Conservatives, he said.

"We’ve never had as much data floating around to inform the decisions of voters. Back in 2011 or 2015, we didn’t have people doing seat counts or extrapolating survey results on a national or provincial level,”Canseno said.

It’s difficult to accurately predict outcomes without someone directly engaging with voters locally, for instance through door-knocking efforts, he said.

A right-wing influencer from Victoria, Gunn was a no-show at all-candidate forums and avoided questions or interviews. His campaign relied on social media messaging, in-person outreach and rallies with supporters. 

On election night, contrary to tradition, Gunn refused to reveal the whereabouts of his campaign celebration to reporters with Canada’s National Observer and failed to respond to questions from another publication, The Tyee — and even went so far as to "kick out" a reporter with the local newspaper, the Campbell River Mirror, when they attended his event at the Anchor Inn. 

Johnston, a councillor for the City of Campbell River, was nominated to run for the NDP after former MP Rachel Blaney announced she would not run again. Blaney had held the riding since 2015. Johnston was one of many NDP candidates in BC, and particularly the party's stronghold on Vancouver Island, to lose a seat as support bled to the Liberals.

Benefitting from the unexpected popularity of Liberal Leader Marc Carney, Lash saw support for her party double over the last election in a riding that has a long history of swinging orange or blue. 

The Liberals haven’t seen similar levels of support in the riding for over a decade, and the results are a turning point that leaves the party well-positioned to win the riding in the next election, she said.

Lash dismissed the idea that vote-splitting between the Liberals and the NDP had secured the seat for Gunn, suggesting it was an “oversimplification” of the results as opposed to understanding shifts in the riding. 

It’s more likely the NDP lost support to the Conservatives, she said. Rather than acting “out of fear” and splitting the vote, people in the riding voted for who they wanted, she said. 

Lash said she also thought it was unfortunate former Liberal prime minister Justin Trudeau failed to keep his election promise of electoral reform — which means voters in a first-past-the-post system continually have to resort to strategic voting rather than supporting candidates of their choice. 

Gunn ran a campaign that did not consider the diversity of constituents in his riding, she added.

Along with widespread backlash from First Nations leaders and many municipal leaders for comments described as residential school denialism, Gunn also drew fire for posts asserting the “gender pay gap doesn’t exist" and systemic racism is a "myth”  along with dismissive comments about LGBTQ2S+ and trans people and bashing diversity and equity measures as "woke".

Gunn, now that he has won, will have to represent the many, Lash said in a statement. 

“I encourage everyone to work constructively with him, while being true to the diverse, inclusive, caring fabric of this riding,” she said. 

“Most importantly, I hope we can work constructively with one another to heal this community.” 

Rochelle Baker and Sonal Gupta / Local Journalism Initiative / Canada’s National Observer