Where do the Greens go from here?

After an election ruled by tariff concerns and strategic voting, the Green Party is down a seat and co-leader. It is now back to its beginnings – one seat, with Elizabeth May at the helm.

Monday’s federal election, which saw Mark Carney’s Liberal Party form a minority government, was defined by “a sense of urgency,” said UBC political science professor Richard Johnston.

That prompted voters to think of the election as a two-horse race, leaving the Greens in the dust, May said in an interview with Canada’s National Observer. Canada’s voting system of first-past-the-post puts people in a position where they are forced to vote strategically, instead of for the party they truly believe in, she said — so she will be pressing the House of Commons for a switch to a proportional model. Former prime minister Justin Trudeau promised electoral reform during his first bid for the job in 2015, but never went ahead with it once elected.

“I don't have to remind the Liberals that we have to deal with affordability and health care, but I definitely have to remind them to start keeping their promises on fair voting and climate action,” May said.  

Johnston says the voting system is “a fundamental structural problem for the Greens,” that did them no favours in this election, when they were competing with the Liberals for the same voters. 

While not necessarily true in May’s riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands, the core of the Green Party’s support is urban, well-educated middle-class people, Johnston said.

Unfortunately for the Greens, however, “that describes Liberals as well,” he said.

The Greens need to convince people who might otherwise vote Liberal or NDP — especially in urban ridings — to “loosen their grip and maybe send a signal to their own party,” as long as they're sure that the party at large won't lose, which is something people were unwilling to do in this high-stakes election, Johnston said.

Pedneault steps down

On Wednesday, Green Party Co-leader Jonathan Pedneault announced he was stepping down after not being elected in his Montreal riding of Outremont for a second time. In a statement, Pedneault said the party was “not able to break through in a way that could shift the course of our country,” calling that a “responsibility [he] must carry.” May told Canada’s National Observer that she “tried to talk him out of it at length,” and she “really regret[s] that he made the decision he's made.”

He went on to say that he “failed to secure the re-election” of the only other incumbent Green MP, Mike Morrice of Kitchener Centre, who lost his seat to Conservative candidate Kelly DeRidder by 358 votes. Pedneault, who was excluded from the leadership debates for failing to meet participation requirements, secured just 9.6 per cent of the vote in his riding. Paul Manly, who represented Nanaimo—Ladysmith from 2019 until 2021, also ran but lost.

While losing Morrice and failing to gain any new seats is a blow to the party, it’s “not huge” because of how small the party is, said Don Desserud, a P.E.I. political analyst. 

“If you're high up on the ladder and you fall down to the bottom, that is painful. If you're in the bottom rung of the ladder and you fall to the bottom, it's not painful,” he said.

“You're still at the bottom, but you didn't fall very far. So, that's where the Greens are.”

At the same time, the Greens obviously want to grow and gain more seats, which will require a rebrand, Desserud said. While the impacts of climate change will only worsen with time, making the focus of the party increasingly relevant, it doesn’t necessarily broaden the appeal. “When you have the same message over and over and over over again, people start to tune out,” he said.

The success of the Greens in PEI could provide lessons, said Desserud. They downplayed their climate policy and narrowed in on their socially progressive policies during the 2019 provincial election, when they nabbed the spot of official opposition. They did the same thing in the 2023 election, and fell from eight seats to two.

People who voted strategically for the Liberals in this election “are not wedded” to them, so the Green have a chance to win over those voters, said Desserud.

“I think it's basically looking at their core message, but finding a new way to repackage it, because it's not resonating anymore,” he said. 

“We're not going to have an election for another couple years. So, the Greens have time to start retrenching. Have a complete rethink of who they are, what their values are, and how they want to go forward.”

As far as leadership goes, the Greens have struggled to find a replacement for May. Under Annamie Paul, the party’s support dropped to 2.3 per cent of the popular vote from the 6.5 per cent it recorded in 2019, and suffered financially and politically due to infighting.

“A party that is so weak institutionally — and indeed, essentially relies to a great extent on a personal vote — is going to struggle both to find talent that's willing to take the time and make it a life's work,” said Johnston.

May said a leadership review is now triggered, and members of the Green Party will now decide the future of its leadership. 

“I'm in it for as long as the membership of the Green Party wants me to stay. I think it's really critical that we continue to build what we've got,” said May.