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Just months ago, Pierre Poilievre was up over two-dozen points in the polls and heading for more than 200 seats in the House of Commons. We know the story of what happened next: In the midst of a failed election campaign that kept the Conservatives in opposition, 25 seats from power and seven points shy of the Liberals in the popular vote, Poilievre lost even his own riding.
The knives are out for Poilievre. Indeed, speculation about who might replace him began before election night: Nova Scotia premier Tim Houston? Ontario premier Doug Ford? What’s Jason Kenney doing these days? Such speculation is easy.
But if the goal is to win, the Conservatives ought to think twice about ditching him — a notion shared by leading Conservatives, including James Moore and Andrew Scheer, who have said he should stay.
The case against Poilievre is easy to make: He lost, having squandered an unprecedented lead in short order. And while no one could have predicted the cascade of events that unfolded so quickly between November and April, the Conservatives were either unable or unwilling (or both) to adjust. The central campaign had been too imperious. The Tories had been too arrogant. Too smarmy. Too “Trumpy.” Too hostile to the press and anyone who disagrees with them. They were too obsessed with enforcing right-wing standards of purity. They indulged in dangerous, counterproductive, culture war politics that violated their ostensible commitment to individual rights. Poilievre was viewed unfavourably by many, especially compared to Mark Carney. The party had also been too harsh on Jagmeet (“sellout”) Singh and the NDP, driving supporters who’d have gone orange to choose red instead.
It’s all true. But that’s not enough to put yet another leader out to pasture.
After both the 2019 and 2021 election losses, the Conservative Party knifed their leaders in fairly short order. In each case, the party had won more votes than the Liberals, but fewer seats. The struggles to replace each leader — Scheer and Erin O’Toole — represented as much an internal struggle over what the party should be as it did frustration with the losses. The current one will be no different.
Poilievre represents a right-wing libertarian Conservative tradition that espouses smaller government, lower spending and market fundamentalism. It’s a wretched program, but one that its adherents believe, ideologically, is right and good. Selling this program to Canadians, Poilievre won a higher share of the vote, 41 percent, than any Conservative since Brian Mulroney in 1988 — and the most seats for the party since 2011.
By historical and recent standards, it was a strong electoral outing for the Conservatives, if not a successful one. Now the party needs to regroup. Keeping Poilievre, who’ll need to win a seat, and soon, in a by-election, would allow them to continue to build a coherent movement around a well-known leader. It would mean holding on to a leader who was a tenacious and effective, if overly pugnacious, opponent of the government in the House, doing his job holding it to account and creating damaging political narratives — some of them even true — that stuck.
Keeping Poilievre would allow the party to forgo a brutal struggle by way of a leadership contest that would threaten to tear the party apart along progressive and reformist lines — which has happened before. It would also leave them more election ready, which they may need to be sooner rather than later. The new minority parliament, under an untested leader and with a diminished partner, could run its course within a nasty, brutish, short — though average by historical standards — 18 months or so.
Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney is a man of tremendous capacity, a neophyte politician who’s learning fast on the job. He’s also facing a tall order as he must deal with the enduring Trump tariff threat, an ongoing affordability crisis, a not-so-hot economy that threatens to dip into recession, intransigent premiers, a simmering potential Alberta secessionist movement and the usual day-to-day challenges of governing Canada, not to mention the events, missteps and scandals that always arise during a ministry.
If he stays, Poilievre will have plenty of work to do and many amends to make. But a disciplined, chastened party may well be in a position of strength in a year or so, up against a Liberal Party that, by 2027, will have been in government for 12 years. Those who remember Canadian politics between 1993 and 2004 may recognize a potential parallel. They may also recognize that the last Conservative prime minister, Stephen Harper, was given a chance to fail before he ultimately succeeded.
Perhaps the party might wish to give history a chance to repeat itself.
Comments
Poilievre was going to lose his seat no matter what else occurred. Mr. Fanjoy has been quietly working hard for over 2 years. This wasn't a big surprise to Mr. Fanjoy because he was talking to people and people were talking to him.
Poilievre lost his own riding and took down two other parties with him as well as losing the election for the Cons. He will be same old same old and 'no one', especially women want him.
Time to listen to the womens' perspective. He not good for women, which means he's not good for family either. He's been in politics for over 20 years, held his riding for 20 years and yet lost it. How does that happen. Well, Convoy happened and he picked the wrong horse as some politicians do.
Let him suffer his consquences. He has a huge pension. Maybe he could renew his political RoboCall Company he once co-owned and who knows what he could do with that. Remember the fella 'Pierre Poutine' (catch me if you can) attached to the industrial sized RoboCall scam in 2011. Never did catch Pierre Poutine because he was just too tricky.
Poilievre has too many faults, he is arrogant, hostile to the media, a slogan-master, too controlling, too Trumpian, and seems to disrespect the rights of women. The latter could be related to the nutty religious group Poilievre seems to have some connection with. Cozying up with the Freedom Convoy crowd was a major turn off. Poilievre seem more interested in grabbing votes than what was best for the welfare of Canadians at that time with COVID mandates. The party itself has too many lunatic MP MAGA hat wearing clowns that put US style politics first than true Canadian values. What is equally bad with Poilievre and the CPC, is their denial that climate change is real. Poilievre also was divisive and spread far too much misinformation himself and through far-right social media sites.
Glad the conservatives failed to get elected, otherwise we would have been the 51st state in a manner of speaking as Poilievre would have caved to the drill baby drill mentality of Trump and dismantle what climate initiatives we do have.
Seriously? Keep Polievre? Surely the fad for “populism” is over in the wake of the destruction south of the border and PP’s failed run. Populism is basically rule by the angry and gets us nowhere. Maybe the Conservatives need to split again to avoid the fate of the Republicans. The NDP needs to revive again even if it splits the current Liberal win. Canada needs a multiparty system where everyone can be represented.
By all means keep him on. The women of Canada will never support him as PM and so the current ideation of conservatives will never win as long as they remain like this.
That suits most of us just fine.
Poilievre is not someone a majority of Canadians would support. He is too far to the right. If Doug Ford was leader, he could win. However, a lot of Federal Conservatives feel he is too "liberal" but that is what the country may be looking for in a Conservative leader. Canada has always been Center-Left and the Liberal Party has played that very successfully. The only reason Poilievre was so far ahead in the polls recently was (a) people were sick of Trudeau and (b) the elctorate was asleep. Trump woke us up and we realized that elections actually had consequences and many of us realized what a disaster Poilievre would be.
If people in the federal Conservative Party view Doug Ford as “too liberal”, the federal party is scary indeed.
"seven points shy of the Liberals in the popular vote"
Liberal 43.7%
Conservative 41.3%
Canada Votes 2025 (CBC)
Poilievre is a nasty piece of work, rejected by progressive Conservatives and practically everyone left of centre from coast to coast.
In mainstream Canadian politics, being "in sync with" Trump is not a selling point.
The Prince of Petulance is not prime minister material.
Vastly unqualified.
The only way Poilievre gets to be PM is if the Carney Liberals sink their own ship, and the NDP remains a fraction of its former self.
I suspect that many subscribe to the National Observer because of its comprehensive focus on both the existential threat of climate change AND the profoundly irrational political dance that persists around the remedial action required to address it.
All this is because of the Conservative/Convoy Party of Canada's stupid, persistent denial of the science. Unbelievably, they are wholly obsessed instead with "owning the Libs" by ANY means possible, making the social media algorithms an absolute gift and the perfect tool with which to "flood the zone with BS," Bannon style.
The depth of this societal threat loomed even larger when we saw all the "big tech bros" line up shoulder to shoulder with Trump at his inauguration, making the medium the message for real.
Nasty conservative fanaticism explains why they have been the only political party to thoroughly embrace all the misinformation/disinformation capabilities on offer.
On its own, this abysmal lack of integrity makes these fear-mongering assholes unfit for democratic governance, but when you add in their denial of climate change???
So, duh, the absolute LAST thing most of us want to read here is the musings of ANY conservative apologist whatsoever.
This is a terrible opinion piece. Canada needs to do away with all the Trump like fake populous, party of grievance's, hate and lies. It is a danger to Canadian Democracy and it does nothing to assist Canadians in getting the best from our leader's. Poilievre should not even be allowed to call himself a Progressive Conservative. There is nothing Progressive about his party. Most of his caucus are Reform member's. Real Conservatives need to step up and take their party back or see it gone forever like the Republican party in the USA. No more Maple MAGA!!!
"Discipline" in this case means remaining a one-man party. By choosing to keep Poilievere, the CPC will signal loud and clear that they didn't get the message. It will mean that they will double down with the toxicity, misinformation, gas lighting, mud slinging, hiring of Russian bot farms, division, hostility to factchecking/the media, grievance, obstructionism, cheap sloganeering, faux populism, etc. Because "Next time will be our time!"
After losing three elections in a row for picking a lousy leader, and this time actually turning off a significant number of conservatives, one would imagine that the CPC might start realizing that Canadians are not interested in a party that wants to govern only for right-wingers.
Although Poilievre could be looked at as a success for increasing the vote percentage of the party, he did lose his seat. The Conservatives will probably keep him on as leader...as of today, he got some Alberta MP elect to resign so he could run for the seat in one of the safest ridings in the country. While you do mention Poilievre's unpopularity among women, you don't really seem to put much weight on that. Women who do not like him REALLY don't like him! We are not going to change our minds. And those who voted for the Conservatives because they wanted change may find that Carney provides the change they really need. Yes, Carney has a minority but only 4 seats short of a majority. That is closer to a majority than either Harper or Trudeau ever had and both managed to hang on to the reins of government for quite a while. Carney may be new to Parliament but he is an intelligent man and seems to learn very quickly. And his Parliament is packed with experienced and capable people. If Poilievre's return to Parliament simply brings a return to his pugnacious, annoying manner, his verb the noun slogans and his constant obstructionist tactics (which is the only way he knows how to behave), Conservatives will have made a huge mistake!