Can Mark Carney rebuild trust with Indigenous people?

Indigenous communities are closely watching how the new Carney government will rebuild the trust that some critics say was eroded under Justin Trudeau’s leadership. 

Trudeau’s government failed to deliver on its promise to lift all long-term drinking water advisories and made little progress on the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s calls to action. Meanwhile, resource projects such as the Trans Mountain pipeline moved forward without full Indigenous consent.

Trudeau was the first prime minister to put Indigenous reconciliation on the national agenda, which was a step forward. But he set expectations that weren’t realistic for his term, said Niigaan Sinclair, Anishinaabe scholar, commentator and professor of Indigenous Studies at the University of Manitoba. As a result, Sinclair said there was a loss of faith in the electoral process and a growing sense that change was too slow. This skepticism is reflected in the number of Indigenous candidates who ran in the recent election — just 45, down from 79 in 2021; twelve were elected. 

“It’s going to be 50 years before we see any real results. And I don’t think patience is there anymore,” said Sara Mainville, a lawyer, former chief and managing partner at JFK Law LLP, a law firm that represents Indigenous communities across Canada. 

But things could change — and fast.

Sinclair said Carney’s “build baby build” agenda could be a big win for First Nations infrastructure projects, which could address the housing and clean water gaps.

Indigenous communities in Canada face severe housing shortages, with over 157,000 homes needed on reserve. As of 2022, 80 per cent of housing needs identified two decades ago remain unresolved. Many northern reserves lack secondary schools, forcing students to relocate hundreds of kilometers from their families.

Ken Coates, director of Indigenous Affairs at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, said each year the government announces plans to build hundreds of new homes, which sounds impressive. But they rarely mention how many homes are lost each year to disrepair.

Indigenous people are six times more likely to live in homes needing major repairs than non-Indigenous Canadians. 

Indigenous communities are still in a water crisis with many living under boil-water advisories that have lasted for years or even decades.

One of Carney’s campaign promises was to revive Bill C-61 and to legislate a right to water for Indigenous peoples. Currently Canada doesn’t have a law guaranteeing clean water for First Nations. Federal lawyers have argued in court that it's a matter of good governance, not a legal obligation. 

“Recognizing the human right to water is a step in that direction,” Sinclair said.

One of the key tests for the Carney government will be how it handles the growing pressures in resource-rich areas, where land and water are directly tied to Indigenous rights and title.

“The North is where the country’s resource future will be decided, and it’s under immense pressure,” said Coates, who is also a professor at Yukon University. 

The stakes are high in northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan, where more Liberal MPs were elected than in previous elections. These regions are often overlooked in national debates, but are now central to Canada’s long-term economic plan. Governments and companies are eyeing major infrastructure projects — including pipelines, mines and energy corridors — in these territories, said Coates. 

“We’ve seen it play out time and again across the country," said Frank Deer, Kanienkeha’ka from Kahnawake and professor of Indigenous Education at the University of Manitoba. 

“From the oilsands to pipelines to mining projects — whenever resource extraction becomes the priority, Indigenous communities often find themselves at the mercy of larger economic forces and their sovereignty, their jurisdiction, becomes secondary."

Carney has promised to support the UNDRIP action plan, which was co-developed by the government and Indigenous peoples to advance reconciliation through targeted actions like consultation processes across federal departments. 

Mainsville said the new government appears to be relying on the same strategies that have failed to deliver meaningful results and remain largely superficial. 

"The UNDRIP action plan is a really frustrating and disappointing process that really wasted a lot of Indigenous energy around reconciliation," Mainsville said.

“Indigenous people generally see consultation sort of as a checkbox exercise,” she said. "It just seems to be a process where people are keeping the project as-is and are just listening, but checking boxes that they’ve met with people — but don’t really change the project itself.”

Sinclair said Carney will need to show that his government is different from its predecessors. To rebuild trust with Indigenous people, his government will need to engage them early in resource discussions and ensure that Indigenous communities have true decision-making power. 

“You have to treat Indigenous rights on par with every other conversation that you have involving economic development in the country,” Sinclair said.

Sinclair said while Carney has spent considerable time on Canada’s economic issues, with expertise in international politics, inflation, and the cost of living, he has a lot to learn about Indigenous rights. “He’s going to need people around him who will advocate and get that Indigenous rights are as important as anything else in his government,” he said.

“They have to really come out and say, ‘This matters to us. We commit to it.’”

Carney’s ability to implement these changes may be limited by the political reality he’s stepping into. With a minority government, scholars say his mandate is fragile — and consensus will be difficult to build.

Coates said Indigenous issues may not get the attention they need because the government will prioritise more pressing national issues like economic stability and security and that will mean sidelining Indigenous sovereignty for political alliances.

There’s a possible upside. Carney may likely need support from the NDP to maintain political stability — and that could be good news for Indigenous priorities.

The NDP, lacking a clear leader and short on resources, is unlikely to push for another election. That makes collaboration with the Liberals more likely — and with substantial Indigenous representation within the NDP caucus, Sinclair said First Nations, Métis and Inuit priorities could have more weight in this Parliament. 

Indigenous issues are going to be a central part of the NDP’s conversations with the Liberals, said Sinclair. 

There is also hope for change with the newly elected Indigenous MPs.

Among the 12 elected are Ellis Ross, a former Haisla Nation chief and BC Liberal MLA, Buckley Belanger, Métis candidate and Liberal MP in Saskatchewan and Billy Morin, a Conservative and former chief of Enoch Cree Nation, who won in Edmonton Northwest. All are strong advocates for Indigenous involvement in the economy, with strong experience across different levels of government, said Coates.

“They’re going to be a completely different force on the Hill,” he said. 

Sonal Gupta / Local Journalism Initiative / Canada’s National Observer