Premier Doug Ford's government is set to unveil its 2025 Ontario budget later this afternoon, against the backdrop of an escalating US trade war, economic uncertainty and mounting anxiety over the future of the province’s auto sector — a pillar of Ontario’s economy that supports tens of thousands of jobs and billions in investment.
Already under pressure from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, Ontario’s export-heavy manufacturing base is showing signs of strain. The Financial Accountability Office (FAO) warned that up to 68,100 jobs could be lost this year due to trade disruptions, with the toll rising to 137,900 by 2029 if tensions continue.
With 85 per cent of Ontario exports going to the US, and the auto sector contributing $36 billion to the province’s $220-billion export economy, Ontario’s economic future depends on how the government responds. This will be Ford’s first budget since winning a third majority, and it’s expected to outline how his government plans to address growing economic uncertainty caused by US tariffs.
The province’s finance minister, Peter Bethlenfalvy, warned that Ontario is facing “a challenge unlike anything we have ever faced before,” due to US tariffs.
Speaking at a press conference in Pickering, Ont., on Tuesday, Bethlenfalvy defended the Ford government’s track record and said the upcoming budget will focus on affordability and economic protection.
“Our closest ally, the United States, has imposed tariffs on us, creating economic uncertainty and, once again, driving up costs for families,” Bethlenfalvy said. “That is why, now more than ever, it is necessary that we do more to protect Ontario — including our families, our workers, our businesses and our economy.”
Bethlenfalvy said the 2025 budget will be “a plan to protect Ontario,” outlining how the government will take decisive action to grow the province’s economy, lower costs for families, and support workers and businesses.
The province has already rolled out an $11-billion package in response to tariffs that includes deferred tax payments, a $1-billion boost to its skills development fund, and rebates for employers through the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board (WSIB).
‘This is going to get worse before it gets better’
Mahmood Nanji, a policy fellow at Western University’s Ivey Business School and former Ontario associate deputy finance minister, said the government must tread carefully.
“We’re in a very turbulent time. There’s incredible uncertainty, volatility, and this is not going anywhere soon,” Nanji said. “It’s Trump, it’s geopolitics, it’s technology, it’s an aging population. There’s a confluence of different factors at play here, but obviously, the big one is the disruptive force from down south and the impact of that.”
Given the current economic backdrop, Nanji said the Ford government should take a cautious approach to its growth projections and fiscal planning. The province needs to prepare for prolonged uncertainty and volatility in the years ahead, he added.
Nanji also highlighted the importance of targeted support for workers and communities affected by economic disruptions — Ontario should support small- and medium-sized businesses in accessing new markets, including through trade missions and federal partnerships. He urged the Ford government to focus on long-term productivity and seize new opportunities to work with Carney’s government on housing, infrastructure, clean energy and high-speed rail — as well as key investments like the Ring of Fire, nuclear energy expansion, and skilled trades training.
Auto sector outlook: uncertain, but not without opportunity
Sheldon Williamson, a professor at Ontario Tech University and Canada Research Chair in electric energy storage systems, said the budget needs to send a signal of strategic support for the EV sector and broader manufacturing sectors, and support innovation.
"The government should prioritize targeted investments that safeguard and grow jobs in the auto and EV supply chains,” Williamson said. "This includes accelerating support for battery manufacturing, critical minerals processing and workforce development tailored to emerging technologies.”
Williamson said Ontario must boost its competitiveness through incentives for advanced manufacturing and research, especially in areas hit hardest by job losses. Strengthening infrastructure — such as energy, transportation, and digital systems — should also be a key priority. “I’d emphasize the importance of aligning provincial policy with federal programs and trade realities,” Williamson said. “A coordinated response to US tariffs and global competition will be essential to ensuring long-term sustainability and investor confidence.”
Climate policy likely to be sidelined
Despite rising carbon emissions in Ontario’s most populated regions and increasing threats from extreme heat and flooding, Nanji suggested the 2025 budget is unlikely to include significant climate action. “Climate change simply isn’t a top priority for this government.” He added that the Ford government has historically resisted environmental measures and does not view climate change as a central concern.
Nanji indicated that Ontario is unlikely to propose anything bold or transformative on climate and will probably wait to see how Carney’s government approaches the issue before taking further steps.
Political opposition parties say the Ford government’s 2025 budget must deliver real, long-term support for Ontarians grappling with rising costs, job insecurity and overstretched public services.
The NDP, Liberals, and Greens are calling for major investments in healthcare, housing and education, as well as stronger protections for workers and industries hit by tariffs. They’re also urging the government to support job creation, invest in made-in-Ontario renewable energy and protect Ontario’s farmland.
Abdul Matin Sarfraz / Canada’s National Observer / Local Journalism Initiative
Comments
In your closing paragraph you listed the recent requests made by the opposition parties from the ON govt. Other than the reference to tariffs, these are the same concerns that either the Premier promised to address or that the opposition raised back in 2018. He was the slayer of halfway medicine, the protector of the greenbelt, the supporter of Green E and the premier who would look out for the working class. Uh huh….
Once elected he quickly cancelled the windmill projects, the EV charging stations, flipped then flopped and then flipped again about using greenbelt land, never addressed the ODSP concerns yet hospitals paid BILLIONS in one year for private agency nurses to work in hospitals, while maintaining BIll 124 that limited public sector pay increases to less than 1%/yr but this excluded law enforcement and fire fighters. All this and much more in his first term.
So what do I expect from this Ford govt budget? Trinkets, trash and a late summer BBQ to woo the base and longer wait times in ER, and the continued avoidance of real support and solutions for our strangled social and education programs.
“The NDP, Liberals, and Greens are calling for major investments in healthcare, housing and education, as well as stronger protections for workers and industries (hit by tariffs). They’re also urging the government to support job creation, invest in made-in-Ontario renewable energy and protect Ontario’s farmland.”