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It's time, Justin

As Liberals gather in Nanaimo to map out a path to victory, all eyes will be on Justin Trudeau and his willingness to read the room -- both literal and figurative. Photo by Alex Tetrault

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When Pierre Trudeau decided it was time to leave back in 1984, he took a walk in the snow. At the rate things are going for Justin Trudeau, that’s a luxury he may not have. As his party’s MPs gather in Nanaimo for their annual caucus retreat and people in Montreal prepare to vote in a crucial Sep. 16 by-election, his political future is at risk of disappearing before his eyes. The sand on Vancouver Island’s beaches may have to do. 

That’s because the only remaining path to a non-disastrous outcome in the next federal election involves Trudeau stepping aside as leader. The surprising events of the last few days, from the end of the NDP-Liberal agreement to the resignation of Trudeau’s national campaign director and five chiefs of staff, should shake the confidence of all but the most kool-aid sotted Liberal loyalist. Even if his candidate is able to pull out a win in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun next week, the very fact that there’s a close race in a riding that’s been a Liberal stronghold since 2015 speaks to the danger every other Liberal MP now faces. 

Whether he wants to admit it yet or not, that’s largely a reflection of — and on — Justin Trudeau. Maybe that’s because he reminds Canadians of the pandemic and all the grief and trauma and division everyone experienced during that. Maybe it’s because he’s finally worn out his welcome with a public that’s been carpet-bombed with his name and image ever since he became party leader more than a decade ago. And maybe it’s because the Conservatives have been successful in tying him to every conceivable problem Canadians face, even — and perhaps especially — the ones he isn’t responsible for in the first place. 

For Liberals, the why shouldn’t matter nearly as much as the what. One is academic, after all, and the other is existential. The guy who has been their biggest asset for as long as he’s been on the ballot has become, slowly and now surely, their biggest albatross. As Abacus Data pointed out back in August, their routine polling hasn’t seen any change in how people feel about Trudeau, with more than twice as many Canadians (58 per cent) having a negative view of him than a positive one (25 per cent). For the mathematically challenged, that puts his personal (un)popularity at a staggering -33.

Short of personally curing cancer or captaining the Toronto Maple Leafs to a Stanley Cup playoff win, there’s nothing Trudeau can do to change this impression. And while his team has clearly banked on Pierre Poilievre’s personality alienating Canadians more and more as time went on, the opposite has actually happened. From a net negative score of -5 back in September of 2022, Poilievre’s approval ratings have slowly but surely climbed into marginally positive territory. 

The Liberals can continue to tinker at the edges here, whether it’s adding Mark Carney as a special advisor or doing another cabinet shuffle, and they can hope that the continued decline of inflation and interest rates makes Canadians less angry than they are today. If they’re lucky, they’ll be able to hold onto half of their 154-member caucus. 

But if I was in that caucus and at that retreat, that wouldn’t be nearly good enough for me. I’d thank the Prime Minister for his service, tell him to enjoy the highly lucrative speaker circuit that so clearly awaits and get to work on choosing a new leader. Maybe that’s Chrystia Freeland. Maybe that’s Anita Anand. And maybe it’s even Mark Carney. It just can’t be Justin Trudeau. 

A new leader wouldn’t bring the Liberals back to the halcyon days of 2022, when they were effectively tied with the Conservatives in most polls. But it’s at least possible, if not plausible, that they could see the same sort of bump in their numbers that Democrats enjoyed when Joe Biden finally stepped aside. After it looked like they were destined for defeat in November, the elevation of Kamala Harris as nominee has invigorated the party’s fundraising and popular support. Now, at least, they have a fighting chance against a second Donald Trump presidency, a situation that seemed inconceivable in July after the Republican National Convention. 

There are no guarantees the Liberals have a Kamala Harris-like figure in their midst, but it wasn’t clear the Democrats did either up until a few weeks ago. Back when Biden was still the nominee there were widespread concerns aired within the Democratic universe about Harris’s track record as a prosecutor, her uneven performance as vice-president, and even her lack of broad political appeal. And yet, those all melted away the moment she was on top of the ticket. She may not win in November, but at least she has Democrats excited about the idea of voting for her.

Justin Trudeau rescued the Liberal Party of Canada from political oblivion when he became leader in 2013. Now, the only way he can avoid sending it back there is by stepping aside.

That’s what the Liberals need now: excitement. Maybe Freeland can rediscover the vibes she enjoyed during the NAFTA renegotiations, when it seemed like many Canadians would be thrilled to have her leading the country. Maybe Anand can take her brand of quiet competence and use it to build out a reinvigorated Liberal Party that actually pays attention to the details. And maybe Carney can provide the sort of contrast to Poilieve’s anti-expertise populism that will bring some Liberals back to the fold. Each at least offers the possibility of a choice that could excite and engage the voters who have tired of the current government. 

It may well be the case that Canadians are more open to supporting the Liberal policy agenda than it seems, or that they’re still reluctant to entrust Pierre Poilievre with the reins of power. But the Liberals will never know any of this unless they find a way to get Trudeau to step aside. Sure, things could certainly get worse without him at the helm. But at this point, how much worse can they really get? 

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