Good morning,
What a week! Against the backdrop of an incoming, bullying, chaotic U.S. administration, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he is stepping down, triggering a frenzy of Liberal backbenchers, cabinet ministers, and outsiders now jockeying to take the reins.
Who will take the helm of the Liberal Party is an open question, but in the meantime, crucial climate legislation is threatened like never before.
Take the cap on oil and gas pollution. This has been a promise of Trudeau’s Liberals since 2021, and experts have repeatedly told us it is needed to tackle the country’s largest and rising source of greenhouse gas emissions. When Trudeau announced he’d move aside, the fate of this policy is what sprung to my mind.
On a phone call from his cabin where he spent some of the holidays, Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault confirmed he still wants to push the policy over the finish line, but acknowledged time is running out. He was hoping the department could finish by June, but close observers expect voters to head to the polls in May.
Parliament has been prorogued until March 24 to give the Liberals time to pick a new leader. Once the House of Commons resumes, every major opposition party has signalled an intent to vote non-confidence and trigger an election. Elections Canada requires a campaign to run from 36 to 50 days. So, a May election looks likely. For those who want to see the cap on oil and gas pollution finalized, that pretty much means departments have 2.5 months (since government departments head into caretaker mode when the writ drops).
A potential scenario that could throw a wrench into things is if Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson enters the Liberal leadership race. He’s considering it and is encouraged by supporters, but has more due diligence to do before deciding if he has a realistic shot.
It is expected cabinet ministers need to resign their posts to run for leader. If that is the case and Wilkinson runs, that would mean a key minister on the oil and gas cap file would be plucked from the equation, practically guaranteeing the policy runs out of time.
Beyond its impact on emissions, whether the Liberals can stickhandle the policy to finalization will have bearing on the election. In 2021, Liberals outflanked the NDP on climate issues which led many leading environmentalists to endorse their platform. Climate change is a file the Liberals consider their high ground — a valuable edge they have over their competition — and breaking the promise to cap oil and gas pollution won’t help convince voters they’re still the party of climate action in 2025. If they do finalize the cap, the Liberals are more likely to win endorsements from environmental organizations, offering them helpful validation when voters look at their options.
So, where does this leave us? Liberals have a gargantuan task ahead of them to both pick a new leader and convince voters a new leader represents real change. The Greens are trying to find a way to salvage legislation that will otherwise die. The Bloc and NDP are hammering away on their platforms. I predict the NDP will campaign on a windfall tax on oil and gas companies. Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are laughing to the top of the polls having successfully taken Trudeau down.
It’s going to be a hell of a ride from here.
‘Til next time,
John Woodside
TOP STORY
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will step down with a major climate promise unfulfilled. Beyond the climate and electoral impacts of potentially breaking this promise, the slow-walking of this policy (first pledged in 2021 and still not finished) highlights the problems with Canada’s approach to fighting climate change. Climate experts say the Liberals’ failure to forcefully go after the culprits choking our atmosphere and driving climate breakdown stains the Trudeau climate legacy.
Number of the Week
130,000 — the number of people in the Los Angeles area under evacuation orders this week
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