Get Zero Carbon delivered to your inbox.
Off to a sizzling start
The doctors have our test results back and they’d like a word. January’s results show we’ve just lived through the first year-long breach of 1.5 C.
"2024 starts with another record-breaking month — not only is it the warmest January on record but we have also just experienced a 12-month period of more than 1.5 C above the pre-industrial reference period,” summarized Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
“Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to stop global temperatures increasing,” says the doc.
We’ve been on an unnerving temperature trajectory for eight months now, since last June when temperatures departed from the expected course of steady global heating and veered up on a new, higher path well above anything we’ve ever experienced.
Last month was the hottest January on record and the eighth month in a row to set a record for its respective month of the year. January was a full 1.66 C hotter than pre-industrial temperatures, according to Copernicus.
This streak of record-setting months means the average rise in temperature is now above 1.5 C over the past 12 months.
(If you’ve found your way to a newsletter titled Zero Carbon, you probably understand the significance of that 1.5 figure, both for climate impacts and the pledges made under the Paris Agreement. Still, I feel duty bound to clarify that a one year average doesn’t mean failure on the Paris goal — those pledges refer to temperature averaged over decades.)
The medical team is keeping a particularly wary eye on results coming in from the Earth’s oceans. It appears that El Niño is weakening but marine air temperatures remain “unusually high.” (The technical term for “bonkers.”)
You’re probably getting used to these spaghetti charts that Copernicus produces: the mess of faded noodles at the bottom shows each year since 1979, chaotic but steadily warming. The chart helpfully highlights 2015 and 2016 as well so we get a good look at the last strong El Niño.
Above all the spaghetti, you can’t miss 2023 veering up on its own higher trajectory and the beginnings of 2024, which is … “unusually high.”
It isn’t just “unusually high” for sea surface temperatures. In the early days of February, we already “reached new absolute records.” Translation: the hottest global sea surface temperatures ever recorded. And, as you can tell from the visual, at a very early point in the annual cycle.
The new head of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says it looks like global heating is speeding up. “We have a trend that is really worrying,” secretary general Celeste Saulo told The Associated Press. In her first interview since taking the top job, Saulo waded into the scientific debate about whether we’re experiencing an acceleration in global warming, saying the WMO’s research points to acceleration.
“We are not there in terms of our scientific understanding of the implications of this acceleration. We don't fully understand how it is going to evolve,” Saulo said.
It’s much easier to identify why climate action is lagging, she said. It’s “not about diplomacy, I think it's about power and economy. We are lagging behind our objectives because of our interests — economic interests — that are well beyond what our common sense, our diplomats and our scientists are pointing out.”
Chilean wildfires
Reports about 1.5 degrees and debates over acceleration are pretty abstract for most people, but the implications are all too real. The WMO has been warning that large parts of South America are in serious danger because of extremely high fire weather conditions due to persistent heat waves and extended drought.
Colombia declared a state of emergency in January after fires raged near the capital, affecting neighbourhoods of Bogotá. And then, last weekend, catastrophe struck Chile.
At least 131 people were killed by wildfires that tore through towns near the Pacific coast, destroying thousands of homes and reducing neighbourhoods to ash. Survivors described fire behaviour of shocking speed and ferocity, echoing descriptions across the Northern Hemisphere from Kelowna to Kamchatka and the Mediterranean to Maui.
🔴#ViñaDelMar| Recorrido aéreo de @AFPespanol evidencia la devastación en la zona por incendios forestales. pic.twitter.com/H2ymbUozK8
— Fernando Ulloa Galaz (@UlloaG_Fernando) February 4, 2024
The death toll in Chile makes it the planet’s fifth deadliest wildfire since 1900. Five of the top 10 have occurred in the past five years.
Canada Dry
It may be winter but 70 per cent of Canada is currently classified as “Abnormally Dry” or in “Moderate to Exceptional Drought,” including 81 per cent of agricultural lands.
Last week, we puzzled over Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s chosen photo op on a day dedicated to provincial drought preparations: that (very) long straw sucking Canada Dry. This week, the province announced a water advisory committee — no surprise it has no climate experts but it also has no hydrologists. The committee did, however, make room for one Ian Anderson, former CEO of the Trans Mountain pipeline company.
On the other side of the Rockies, the premier of B.C. is “really worried.” Premier David Eby says “This marks the year when I learn that fires can actually burn underneath snow — I didn’t know that was a thing.”
There are about 100 fires smouldering over winter in the province. I suppose it’s better late than never for Eby to grok zombie fires but it’s a testament to the state of climate literacy among politicians — he is, after all, generally regarded as one of the provincial premiers prepared to grapple with the issue.
“Really, we’re facing a new reality. Think about it, here we are talking about drought in February,” Oliver Brandes, a lead with the POLIS Water Sustainability Project at the University of Victoria, told Canada’s National Observer
European trends
Europe got more electricity from wind than from gas last year. While renewables supplied 44 per cent of juice to the grid, fossil fuels dropped to less than one-third. Carbon emissions from the power sector fell 19 per cent in 2023.
The “recent energy figures from Europe further weaken Canada’s justification for developing LNG to export it abroad,” reports Cloe Logan.
In other news from across the pond, the European Commission has proposed to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 90 per cent by 2040.
But in the face of protests by farmers across Europe, the EU’s executive branch backed off requirements to reduce climate pollution from farming and dropped recommendations for eating less meat. The EU holds elections in June and the next commission will decide whether to turn the 90 per cent cuts into law.
Fill ’er up. Burn it down
“Few sources of Canadian climate pollution are larger and more out of control than the gasoline and diesel we pump into our cars and trucks,” writes Barry Saxifrage.
“What’s driving this trend? Lots more tailpipes — attached to the world’s worst gas-guzzlers.”
Saxifrage charts us through the surge in climate pollution from vehicles, which have been increasing twice as quickly as Canada’s emissions overall. Here’s a peek:
In related news, Parisians just voted to discourage gas-guzzlers by boosting the cost of parking based on weight and targeting heavy vehicles like SUVs. Bloomberg reports that “voters approved a referendum on Sunday, with on-street parking fees that will rise above €100 for just a few hours of shopping or errands… triple the cost for smaller vehicles.”
Battery buses for Regina
The City of Regina is buying 53 battery-electric buses from Nova Bus, based in Quebec. The city has pledged to buy only electric buses from 2024 onwards.
It’s an evolution of the bus … from diesel to hybrid to electric,” Alexandrine Gauvin, adviser for public affairs and external communications at Nova Bus, told Electric Autonomy Canada.
Million-dollar Mann
High-profile climate scientist Michael Mann has been the target of vicious attacks since publishing the “hockey stick” graph of temperatures over the past millennium. Mann was awarded $1 million by a jury after winning a defamation lawsuit against Mark Steyn and Rand Simberg. You may know Steyn for past columns in the National Post and hosting shows on Fox News.
“I hope this verdict sends a message that falsely attacking climate scientists is not protected speech,” Mann said. The four-week jury trial in the District of Columbia ended with punitive damages of $1,000 against Simberg and $1,000,000 against Steyn.
Canada overtakes China in battery supply chains
Canada topped the latest rankings of global lithium-ion battery supply chains. The rankings are produced by BloombergNEF, analyzing 30 countries on a series of metrics including mining raw materials and battery manufacturing.
“In 2023, Canada was the setting for major battery gigafactory announcements by Volkswagen and Northvolt,” reports Electric Autonomy Canada. “The federal government also committed up to $25 billion in incentives to these projects.”
On the topic of mining, Christopher Pollon argues, “It's never been more important to find a mining waste fix.”
“A modern mine is not just a source of valuable metals. It's also a permanent toxic waste storage facility. The need to store and manage mine tailings — the waste created by grinding up and processing ore — is modern mining’s greatest environmental liability and long-term expense. It’s also a huge concern moving forward, as production ramps up of critical metals like copper, needed for the electrification of our civilization to fight climate change.”
Bill seeks crackdown on fossil fuel ads
“A new private member’s bill is taking aim at fossil fuel companies using the same tactics that forced Big Tobacco to stop advertising,” reports Natasha Bulowski.
The Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment worked with NDP MP Charlie Angus to develop the bill. The legislation would make it illegal for fossil fuel companies and lobby groups to “falsely promote the burning of fossil fuels as a benefit to the public.”
“To claim that there are clean fossil fuels is like saying there are safe cigarettes,” said Angus. “We know that is simply not true.”
Announcing: Climate finance scholarship contest
Canada’s National Observer is launching the first annual Climate Finance Scholarship Contest along with Change Course and Stand.earth. Open to young people aged 18 to 30 in Canada, applicants are invited to submit articles. Two contest winners will win $2,500 scholarships for written or multimedia submissions and finalists will have their work published on Canada’s National Observer. Deadline for submissions is March 17. Get the deets here.
Authoritarian backlash
I’ll leave you with Bob Berwyn’s dive into the cauldron of political poison that could intensify with climate impacts: With the World Stumbling Past 1.5 Degrees of Warming, Scientists Warn Climate Shocks Could Trigger Unrest and Authoritarian Backlash.
In his piece for Inside Climate News, Berwyn writes:
“As Earth’s annual average temperature pushes against the 1.5 degree Celsius limit beyond which climatologists expect the impacts of global warming to intensify, social scientists warn that humanity may be about to sleepwalk into a dangerous new era in human history. Research shows the increasing climate shocks could trigger more social unrest and authoritarian, nationalist backlashes.”