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All signals flashing red
Fires are still raging across the country but already they’re slipping from the headlines. And the legacy media is even less interested in the alarm signals flashing all at once around the globe. You wouldn’t know it from your newsfeed but if we had a global command centre, it would be chaos.
This is what’s happening in the world’s oceans right now.
Chart from University of Maine
All that squiggly spaghetti is the record of rising ocean heat, year by year. But that solid black line veering up and off on its own is what’s happening this spring, well ahead of the El Niño many scientists are predicting for later this year.
And that’s just one of the flashing alerts. The North Atlantic is even more anomalous.
And other signals are headed off the charts in the opposite direction.
Data from Arctic and Antarctic Data Archive System
You might already be thinking, these charts are disturbingly similar to Canada’s wildfires.
Update on the carbon emissions from the wildfires. As of June 14, 5.4 million ha have burned, which translates into 765 Mt of CO2 equivalent.
— Marc Lee (@MarcLeeCCPA) June 14, 2023
This is larger than total GHG emissions in any year in Canada's inventory (2021 was 670.4 Mt, peak 2007 at 748 Mt) pic.twitter.com/bSz3QU12iS
Even on the broadest measurements, warning lights are flashing all over the control board: for 11 days this month, global temperatures spiked into the no-go zone beyond 1.5 degrees.
So, why isn’t the news media tripping over itself to let us know the klaxons are sounding? It is, after all, very much news. These aren’t projections for the future spit from a computer model — they are actual observations from thermometers on ocean buoys and underwater gliders, readings from satellites — crazy temperatures, hectares burned, all happening right now.
And the fact that scientists are trying to figure out what the hell is going on, makes it even more newsworthy.
“This is totally bonkers” says one hurricane expert at the University of Miami.
“People who look at this stuff routinely can’t believe their eyes. Something very weird is happening.”
Climate change is obviously the background amplifier, supercharging heat. And the oceans have been working overtime, absorbing 90 per cent of global warming. It’s an astonishing amount of heat: 396 zettajoules (no, not a measuring stick I’m used to either) since the 1970s. The equivalent energy of over 25 billion Hiroshima atomic bombs.
We can’t really be surprised that might have some effect. But why such drastic anomalies so suddenly? Why right now? And if we don’t have good answers to those questions, isn’t that even more reason to boost coverage?
Instead, you will scroll a good long way through most new sites even to get the latest on Canadian wildfires. And then perhaps you run into a happy news story about a brewery finding workarounds for blocked highways or international firefighters arriving to help out.
The media has a lot to answer for in its failure to cover climate breakdown and inform the public. Sometimes, it’s negligence — a failure to prioritize the most consequential news, like the sizzling seas.
Sometimes, the problem is more active — decades of both-sidesing whether climate change is even a thing. Seeding the confusion we’re stuck with today. Lately, it’s often a more nuanced role, amplifying the fossil-Conservative denial complex.
I was stopped cold earlier this week when our algorithmic masters thought I should see the National Post’s daily newsletter from Tristin Hopper: “Are eco-terrorists causing all the fires?”
Hopper may not have written that headline himself. There are probably still editors at Postmedia. And you can be sure they know the game they’re playing. It was well summed up by George Lakoff’s admonition, “Don’t think of an elephant!”
Did you? That’s the game.
Whoever wrote the headline, you had to read seven paragraphs deep before Hopper concedes: “But the balance of the evidence suggests that most of these fires are likely being sparked by their usual cause: Lightning.”
Why the “but”? Well that’s because Hopper had just asserted that “Canadian enviro-extremists have certainly never shied away from large-scale property damage.”
And he’d spent the previous paragraphs reciting claims from the likes of Alberta Premier Danielle Smith that arsonists are behind the fires. Hopper highlights one post from a “former Google engineer” that claims “Canada’s deep state arson fire is worse than you think.” Apparently it already had over 3.5 million views on TikTok. Hopper reproduced it with links for his audience.
You’ll remember that Australia’s Black Summer of 2020 resulted in a similar barrage of disinformation about arsonists, laundered and amplified by the Murdoch media empire. It was, for many, the point we realized there would be no “holy shit” moment when the public got a clear view of the crisis and rallied to save itself.
But I don’t remember Australian disinformation taking as political a bent as it has in Canada. I won’t link but you should know this is the kind of diet many Canadians have been feasting on. It comes courtesy of former CBC Dragons’ Den panellist, Canadian Petroleum Hall of Fame inductee and winner of the Oil and Gas Council’s Lifetime Achievement Award, W. Brett Wilson.
How those shadowy firebugs simultaneously caused extreme drought across southern Alberta goes unquestioned. Nevertheless, farmers are “on the road to ‘zero production,’” according to Global News.
If I’m giving the legacy media a hard time, it’s because it’s deserved. But amidst the negligence, there are still admirable journalists and columnists. And there are still conservative voices insisting on the importance of character against the shortsighted selfishness engulfing the conservative movement.
This week, the Globe’s Gary Mason wrote a powerful column marking the anniversary of D-Day. “There were millions who didn’t want to fight in the Second World War. But thank goodness there were millions who did, many of whom paid the ultimate price.
“We now need to find the same measure of unselfishness to defeat the greatest enemy this generation has ever faced,” Mason wrote, echoing Seth Klein’s The Good War.
Mason tore into the current federal Conservatives as well as the leaders of Alberta and Saskatchewan for obsessing over the carbon tax and refusing to act on climate. And he got kudos from conservative commentator Charles Adler. “This country doesn't just have a forest fire problem — an air quality problem,” says Adler. “Canada has a character problem.”
Which may be true but really doesn’t plumb the vicious extent of conservatives’ assault on the climate movement. For that, we have to turn to Sandy Garossino, who conducted a four-part “data-based dismantling” of conservative conspiracies for Canada’s National Observer. Canadian environmentalists were “hounded, vilified and intimidated for almost a decade,” she found.
This week, Garossino itemized how “the Conservatives launched a near decade-long campaign smearing Canadian environmentalists as dangerous radicals.
“They exploited public fear of terrorism to discredit anyone pushing for climate action.”
The new leaders of the conservative movement seem intent on continuing that strategy of vilifying the messengers while the legacy media ignore the flashing alerts.
“This is where we are,” writes Garossino. “Where people will betray our children and grandchildren for money, or votes, or clicks, or drinks & chuckles with billionaire donors.”
A couple of notables from Parliament this week. Canada’s main environmental law got an update. “Under the new law, every individual in Canada has a right to a healthy environment, and the government must protect that right,” reports Natasha Bulowski.
“The new law is being hailed by some environmental groups (and the Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment) as an important step forward (but) federal Green Party MPs Elizabeth May and Mike Morrice voted against S-5, calling the proposed updates ‘overall, a step backward.’”
Matteo Cimellaro reports the law “moved the needle,” but whether it will “protect front-line communities in what are often called ‘sacrifice zones’ is unclear.”
And the feds introduced their “Sustainable Jobs Plan” (the “don’t say ‘just transition’ plan” according to some wags). It’s pretty light on details — a plan to make a plan, as the saying goes — but Gil McGowan, president of the Alberta Federation of Labour, called it “a good day.” Representatives from Unifor, the Canadian Labour Congress, International Union of Operating Engineers and International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers were on hand to endorse the plan. The NDP’s Charlie Angus has been championing the bill:
“When you have the building trades, the electrical workers, Unifor Western Canada, steelworkers (in) Western Canada, the electrical and boilermakers all from Western Canada saying, ‘We want to be part of a new economy,’ it takes away the credibility of the conservatives who exploited the oil and gas and the energy workers for years, claiming to be their voice,” said Angus.
Premier Danielle Smith was outraged: “Alberta will not recognize, co-operate with or enforce any attempt to phase out our province’s oil and gas industry or its workforce. This is non-negotiable.” Despite the heated rhetoric, Seth Klein calls the plan “a snoozer.”
The fires do seem to be having an effect on public opinion at a national level.
Climate change is up 7 points in our top issue tracker over the past month.
— David Coletto (@DavidColetto) June 14, 2023
Cost of living, healthcare, and housing remain in the top 3 but almost 3 in 10 now say climate is one of their top three issues.
Details on the @abacusdataca poll: https://t.co/nWJVBJqv1x pic.twitter.com/3ddSyzSOIf
And doctors across the country are calling for a ban on fossil fuel ads to save lives:
“Last year, over 700,000 health professionals signed an open letter asking the government to restrict the promotion of deadly fossil fuels, but no such action has been taken to address the greatest public health crisis we face as a country.
“While the advertising of tobacco has been restricted in Canada since 1989, coal, oil, gas and automotive companies are allowed the near-unrestricted ability to promote their products, which are hazardous to our health, environment and climate.”
Clean power for B.C.
At the provincial level, the B.C. government and BC Hydro acknowledged the province needs more electricity and required it to come from renewable sources. A useful template for provinces across the country.
BC Hydro is putting out a call for projects totalling 3,000 GWh, and the province is providing $140 million to Indigenous clean energy initiatives. It’s an encouraging break in the logjam of provincial regulators and utilities blocking electrification that we’ve covered in previous Zero Carbon newsletters.
“As we face the threat of a record fire season across Canada, the need to switch to clean power to fight climate change has never felt more urgent,” said Premier David Eby. “The good news is that from electric cars to electrified heavy industry, British Columbians are taking action.”
UN chief: Fossil fuels ‘incompatible with human survival’
At the international level, the countries of the world just wrapped up their prep meeting for this year’s climate summit. The results were underwhelming — perhaps the best accomplishment was to require that fossil fuel lobbyists identify themselves. The UN secretary-general wasn’t mincing words, at one point saying, “The fossil fuel industry is at the heart of the climate crisis.
“The problem is not simply fossil fuel emissions. It’s fossil fuels — period.
“Countries must progressively phase them out, moving to leave oil, coal and gas in the ground — and massively boost renewable investments.” António Guterres called for a move “away from a product incompatible with human survival.”
Just days before, a new study estimated that “global heating will drive billions of people out of the ‘climate niche’ in which humanity has flourished for millennia … exposing them to unprecedented temperatures and extreme weather…”
Net zero?
Most net-zero commitments from fossil fuel companies are “largely meaningless,” according to a study published this week. They have no short-term emissions plans and don’t cover the climate pollution released when their products are used.
National targets aren’t doing much better. A study in Science finds 90 per cent aren’t credible or likely to be achieved. Canada’s plan ranks as “credible” but the authors say emissions are not on a clear downward path and we get a “lower” confidence rating of achieving the target — the same category as the U.S. and China.
RBC segregated Indigenous Peoples
Eve Saint “wasn’t expecting a red carpet at the Royal Bank of Canada’s 2023 annual general meeting, but wasn’t expecting to be segregated to a back room, either.”
“As part of the Indigenous, Black, and People of Colour (IBPOC) delegation to RBC’s 2023 AGM, I was there as a registered proxy holder. Registered proxy holders who also happened to be white settlers were welcomed into the main conference room.
“It was pretty dehumanizing and degrading.”
1.5 degrees
I know I’ve packed a lot of charts into the newsletter already, but it’s important to realize how close we are to breaching the 1.5 C target. We exceeded it for 11 days this month. It doesn’t mean we’ve failed the Paris goal yet because that means exceeding 1.5 degrees averaged over several decades. But we are coming very close and we’re a very long way from stabilizing global temperatures.
"the global-mean temperature indeed breached the 1.5°C limit in the first week of June"
— Glen Peters (@Peters_Glen) June 16, 2023
Then will come a month, then a year, then a decade, then a 30 year average, ...
This is a good indication of how close we are to 1.5°C 😬...https://t.co/r1BoDtPoaO pic.twitter.com/lWF4Cn6vmt
IEA calls the peak on oil
The International Energy Agency was set up to secure oil supplies for OECD countries after the oil shocks of the 1970s. So, it was a big deal when the IEA announced this week that global oil demand will slow sharply and peak before the end of this decade as clean energy destroys demand. Gasoline demand will probably peak this year. The overall peak for oil used for combustion will happen in 2028.
IEA chief Fatih Birol said that fossil fuel investments “may not be really profitable” in the medium and long term. “Clean energy is moving very fast. Faster than many people think,” he told Semafor. Asked if he would invest his personal pension in fossil fuel companies, he replied, “I, myself, wouldn’t do it.”
Milestones for renewables
In Europe, wind and solar produced more EU electricity than all fossil fuels including coal and gas in May, the first month on record.
In the U.S.: “Wind and solar generated more electricity than coal through May, an E&E News review of federal data shows, marking the first time renewables have outpaced the former king of American power over a five-month period.”
China hit a more qualified milestone: fossil fuels dropped below half of China’s installed power capacity. That’s two years ahead of the government’s target. But it’s important to note they’re talking about capacity not actual generation, so there are many milestones yet to hit.
And globally:
🚨🌞AMAZING solar stats klaxxon🌞🚨
— Simon Evans (@DrSimEvans) June 13, 2023
It took 22 years for the world's solar power capacity to grow from one gigawatt to one terawatt
The latest @SolarPowerEU projections say the second AND the third terawatts will arrive WITHIN FIVE YEARS pic.twitter.com/A0veJv2rTN
Gas furnaces banned from new buildings
Scotland has new rules for new buildings: a ban on fossil fuel “boilers” starting April 2024. Buildings will have to use heat pumps or be connected to low-carbon district heating networks.
Gas-free neighbourhoods
On the topic of heating buildings, there’s a very interesting project breaking ground in Massachusetts and I’ll leave you with an article about it. I try to avoid hype for the latest shiny thing but it’s healthy to keep in mind how many thousands of clever people are beavering away all over the world on replacing fossil fuels. This might be the smartest idea I’ve heard for dealing with the powerful gas utilities — a kind of true transformation where pipefitters would be in even higher demand and the utility keeps its customers.
“Heat pumps are cool. Neighbourhood geothermal might be cooler,” writes Emily Pontecorvo in Heatmap.
“Eversource, the largest gas and electric utility in New England … will connect 32 residential and five commercial buildings in a single neighburhood to underground water pipes, which will draw on the steady temperature of the ground beneath the Earth’s surface to air condition and heat the buildings without fossil fuels.
“Clean energy advocates across the country are looking to the demonstration as a test of the idea that natural gas utilities can remain in business in a decarbonized world by managing a network of pipes filled with water instead of climate-warming gas.”