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Big Oil traps us in a hot car
On the eve of the summer solstice, the National Weather Service was baking cookies inside a car in San Angelo, Texas. The agency used the stunt to warn about record-breaking heat across the region, but rolling up the car windows on a sunny day is a pretty good analogy for climate change in general.
The more you roll up the windows, the more heat gets trapped in the car. Not so different from blanketing the planet with heat-trapping carbon from fossil fuels. When it comes to car windows, everyone recognizes the crime of child endangerment. But the absent-minded parent is being held to a much higher standard than fossil fuel companies who are fully aware they are causing much greater harm and have spent decades distorting evidence and fighting measures to reduce the death and damage.
In San Angelo, thermometers hit 114 F for two days in a row this week — new all-time records, let alone for June. That’s 45.5 C for those of us in the rest of the world. (Canadians tend to be metrically muddled and bake in Fahrenheit. For the record, the inside of a car has to reach at least 165 F to ensure the eggs are safe.)
San Angelo wasn’t even the hot spot in Texas. Rio Grande hit 118 F and several locations breached 120 F on the heat index accounting for humidity. The heat dome is centred over Northern Mexico where Chihuahua hit 42 C at almost 1,500-metres altitude and Nuevo Laredo had consecutive days at 45 C.
Heat waves are striking hard and early in the Northern Hemisphere. In northern India, “so many people are dying from the heat that we are not getting a minute’s time to rest,“ one hearse driver told The Associated Press. “On Sunday, I carried 26 dead bodies.” With the local morgue beyond capacity, families were told to take their relatives’ bodies home.
There are far too many records to list and they are spread across the hemisphere. In Iran, Zabol hit 50.8 C on the solstice. Pakistan has cities baking at 49 C. Beijing reached 41.1 C on Thursday, not so far off Corsica at 41.6 C but well behind Xinjiang at 45 C.
Last week we looked at the sizzling seas. I’m afraid those spiking charts are even more “bonkers” this week with marine heat waves in both the North Atlantic and the North Sea and a parade of hurricanes forming much too early in the year.
We hold pet owners more accountable for rolling up the windows than we do companies who insist on fuelling this heat by expanding oil, gas and coal. Roll up the car windows, head into a store and you’re in big trouble with the law. Use the car as directed and industry cooks us like cookies, raking in billions and immune from accountability or prosecution.
That's changing. There are now over 40 local and state governments in the U.S. bringing litigation and suing Big Oil for damages. There are over 2,000 climate lawsuits at various stages around the world.
Earlier this month, the town council of View Royal, B.C., voted to work with other local governments and bring a class action lawsuit against global fossil fuel companies to recoup a share of climate damages. The town is the second in B.C., joining the town of Gibsons.
And on Thursday, the most populous county in Oregon sued big oil companies over the 2021 heat dome that killed more than 1,000 people in the Pacific Northwest.
“The heat dome that cost so much life and loss was not a natural weather event. It did not just happen because life can be cruel, nor can it be rationalized as simply a mystery of God’s will,” states the lawsuit. “Rather, the heat dome was a direct and foreseeable consequence of the Defendants’ decision to sell as many fossil fuel products over the last six decades as they could.”
You’ll probably remember that attribution studies found the heat dome to be “virtually impossible” without climate change. The county is seeking $50 million in damages from the 2021 heat dome as well as $50 billion for climate adaptation and $1.5 billion in future damages.
“These businesses knew their products were unsafe and harmful, and they lied about it," said County Chair Jessica Vega Pederson. "They have profited massively from their lies and left the rest of us to suffer the consequences and pay for the damages. We say enough is enough."
Interestingly, in addition to the usual suspects from Big Oil, the lawsuit names enablers and trade associations: McKinsey & Company along with the American Petroleum Institute and the Western States Petroleum Association.
Also this week, a court case wrapped up early in Montana. Sixteen Montana youth sued the state for violating its constitution by continuing to issue oil and gas permits. The constitution requires that “the state and each person shall maintain and improve a clean and healthful environment in Montana for present and future generations.”
The case ended early because the state decided not to call its roster of witnesses, including well-known climate contrarian Judith Curry. The lawyers pulled the plug after embarrassing testimony by environmental staff, one of whom said he’d never heard of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
That’s a pretty extreme example, especially for an environmental bureaucrat. But much of the public suffers from a more understandable form of myopia. Fifteen or even 10 years ago, it was edgy to claim we didn’t need fossil fuels. The lack of alternatives was the fossil fuel industry’s real defence.
Things have changed so quickly, you have to have not been paying attention to realize conventional wisdom has been completely overturned. Today, even the UN secretary-general and head of the International Energy Agency are urging policymakers to catch up with the world that’s already here.
If there are any visuals to match the frightening trajectories of global heat and ice loss, they are the ones compiled by Rocky Mountain Institute this week.
One person who has been paying very close attention is Dave Roberts, longtime energy journalist and host of the Volts podcast.
“I'm not sure it's widely understood that we basically know how to decarbonize everything in the energy system now,” Roberts says. “There are areas and sectors where the solutions remain quite expensive, but we know how to bring down costs over time. Jets, ships, steel, concrete — all known.”
There are sources of climate pollution where the solutions are less clear. We don’t know how to get agriculture to zero emissions, for example. But for the vast majority of carbon pollution, the problem is deployment.
“That's where the climate/clean energy fight is now,” says Roberts. “We know where we need to go, we know how to get there, and we know it's going to be a massive economic and quality-of-life improvement. We are held back by status quo powers that profit off the current misery.
“That's a very, very different story than the ‘shiver in the dark in order to save the polar bears’ narrative that for some reason *still* seems stuck in the popular imagination. This is the big challenge for climate communicators and storytellers: update that popular narrative.”
One player that’s really playing catch up is the Canadian Energy Regulator, better known under its former name, the National Energy Board. This week, for the first time, the regulator summarized Canadian energy prospects in a world moving toward net-zero.
Yes, almost eight years after the Paris Agreement, Canada’s national energy agency finally got around to looking into this whole climate thing. (And only because the natural resources minister ordered it to.)
The regulator made some herculean assumptions about our blazing forests being carbon sinks. It packed millions and millions of tons of carbon capture and other “negative emissions” into its scenarios. Even so, in a world tackling climate change, Canadian crude oil production falls by 76 per cent over the next three decades. Natural gas production falls by 68 per cent.
“In other words,” writes Max Fawcett, “Alberta has a few years to get its house in order when it comes to both its finances and environmental liabilities before things get really, really real.”
The agency does seem to be getting its head around fossil fuel replacements, projecting that “electricity becomes the most important end-use energy source while the use of fossil fuels falls significantly.” In fact, electricity production will have to double, although “using electricity is much more efficient than using fossil fuels, and contributes to (overall) energy use decreasing by 22 per cent from 2021 to 2050.”
Solar will be very important across the Prairies but nationally, the agency sees wind power having by far the most growth.
The regulator actually released two other scenarios: one with no climate policy beyond what’s already on the books and a strange scenario in which plucky Canada goes for net-zero alone. But it’s the global net-zero scenario that’s most useful — even with all the fossil-friendly assumptions, it’s a yardstick for the public to evaluate decisions about expanding fossil fuel projects and deploying their replacements.
Deploying those replacements at speed and scale could save Canadians money, as well as lives. The Canadian Climate Institute did its own analysis and reckons average spending on energy will decrease 12 per cent by 2050 “as people switch from fossil fuels to more efficient technologies like EVs and heat pumps … even as electricity prices increase gradually over time.”
Seeing clearly
It was #ShowYourStripes day this week and people around the world showed the “warming stripes” for their region. My favourite was a projection on the White Cliffs of Dover.
BREAKING: the White Cliffs of Dover have been illuminated with the UK 'warming stripes' for #ShowYourStripes day!
— Ed Hawkins (@ed_hawkins) June 20, 2023
These stripes represent the UK average temperature from 1884 to 2022 with blue colours for colder years and red colours for hotter years.https://t.co/LW5Kgrr8w3 pic.twitter.com/kx6vt2Z3ra
NASA released an eye-opening look at what our planet would look like if greenhouse gases were visible. The rocket scientists helpfully colour-coded different sources — fossil fuels in orange. It’s fascinating to watch how the plumes spread and envelop the Earth over the course of a year. Spoiler alert: Our blue oasis turns into something like gassy Jupiter.
Jesus says divest
Student organizers convinced another University of Toronto college to divest from fossil fuels.
Another one bites the dust. Following @VicCollege_UofT decision to divest, @uStMikes becomes the second of @UofT's federated colleges to commit to divesting from fossil fuels by 2030!
— Erin Mackey (@erinmackey_) June 21, 2023
student organizing works!! @cjuoft do @Trinity_College next 👀 https://t.co/9e3mNqPIbO
And the Church of England says it’s lost faith in oil and gas companies after years of shareholder engagement.
“None are aligned with the goals of the Paris climate agreement,” the Archbishop of Canterbury concluded. Big Oil is continuing to expand production and “recent reversals of previous commitments have undermined confidence in the sector’s ability to transition.” The Church is divesting its endowment and pension.
Gas stoves
Gas stoves release cancer-causing benzene into homes at levels higher than secondhand smoking or even living next to oil and gas facilities, according to a Stanford University study that completed peer review and was published this week.
Isaac Phan Nay dug into the brewing battle, especially among Asian chefs, where there’s a “cultural backlash” in some kitchens while other restaurants have gone to induction ranges.
Elsewhere in Canada’s National Observer, you’ll discover:
How a tenants bill of rights could help renters left out of energy-efficiency programs.
The mounting scrutiny over Canada’s billions in fossil fuel subsidies.
Indigenous Clean Energy is electrifying a remote Indigenous tourism venture.
Lululemon is stuck in coal pose.
Catherine McKenna has suffered years of vicious abuse and misogynistic threats. But the former environment minister received more positive feedback this week — the Chevalier honour from the French government’s Legion of Honour.
Patricia Lane introduces us to yet another impressive young Canadian — 16-year-old Clara Brown from Merrickville, Ont. — who helps ensure young people have a greater voice when world leaders gather.
Marc Fawcett-Atkinson investigates whether biomethane and “renewable natural gas” is a Holy Grail for clean energy or greenwashing.
And the latest on this week’s summit in Paris aimed at shaking up the financial system to tackle climate change. Ugandan climate activist Vanessa Nakate silenced the room, then made everyone listen to some uncomfortable facts.
The UN’s International Maritime Organization is meeting next week to set measures for cutting carbon from shipping. Turns out, more than 80 per cent of Canadians believe it’s important for Canada to invest in zero-emission ports, vessels and shipping routes, according to a new poll commissioned by Oceans North and conducted by Abacus Data.
Nothing normal about it
If that persistent question about the “new normal” drives you crazy, you’ll appreciate Arno Kopecky’s takedown in The Walrus: Stop Calling Each New Disaster ‘The New Normal’.
“By the first week of June, talk of the new normal had followed the boreal’s smoke all the way to New York City.”
The whole concept is crazy-making, especially coming from the media because it underlines one of the biggest misunderstandings reporters can’t seem to shake: that we’re stepping into some new state for climate. As if it would be static from here on as opposed to barrelling through ever-worsening conditions.
Cleaning up
I’ll leave you with a recommendation for a conversation between two forces of nature in climate circles. Among many points on his resume, Michael Liebreich is an engineer, an Olympic skier and founder of New Energy Finance (later bought by Bloomberg). He somehow finds time to run the podcast Cleaning Up, Leadership in an Age of Climate Change. And this week, he interviews Tzeporah Berman, chair of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, founder of Stand.earth and director of many incredible campaigns (who somehow finds time to be married to yours truly).
They cover pipeline battles, the clean energy revolution, Alberta politics, getting tech giants off coal and onto renewables, international climate negotiations and how a non-proliferation treaty could be the path to a managed decline of fossil fuel use.