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Climate’s conservative problem
You’ll often hear that we’re over the hump on climate denial. Beyond the comment sections of the Internet, that’s broadly true for old-school, outright denial that climate change is happening at all. But a more insidious variant has taken root and it explains a good deal of the carbon ruckus in our politics — Conservative voters aren’t convinced humans are causing it.
You’ll recall that surreal moment in 2021 when delegates rejected adding “climate change is real” to the Conservative Party of Canada’s policy book. You might chalk that up to the nature of party conventions — in any party, they attract a disproportionate number of, let’s just say, “enthusiasts.”
But the political divide between Conservatives and other Canadians reaches far beyond the parties’ button-collecting bases. It’s not so much a divide as a chasm.
Around 90 per cent of Canadians who say they intend to vote Liberal or NDP tell pollsters that "climate change is a fact and is mostly caused by human activities," according to a survey by the Angus Reid Institute conducted in March.
By contrast, only one-third of federal Conservative voters accept this foundational climate fact.
And you’ll note the generous space for wiggle room — respondents merely had to acknowledge that climate change is “mostly” caused by nebulous “human activities.” No pointing the finger at fossil fuels, no need to side with the world’s scientists that human-causation is “unequivocal,” with effects that are “irreversible for centuries to millennia.”
Conservative voters are a very long way from “unequivocal” — in the same survey, fully half said climate change is “mostly caused by natural changes and cycles.”
The political chasm is even more striking when it comes to climate impacts. Re.Climate just published its annual review of public opinion, What do Canadians really think about climate change? (disclosure: I am one of the authors) and found that “Canadians who voted Conservative in the last federal election express very different beliefs about climate impacts than those who voted for other parties, such as whether wildfires are linked to climate change.”
Only one-quarter of Conservative voters thought last summer’s forest fires were directly linked to climate change.
Chart by Re.Climate. Data from Angus Reid Institute, 2023.
If you’re managing to hold the position that climate change isn’t driving extreme events or that humans aren’t causing it anyway, it’s not surprising if you don’t support action against carbon pollution.
And that’s exactly where most Conservative voters are at — barely one-third say that “climate change is a crisis and we need to act quickly.”
I suppose there’s some solace in the fact that one-third of self-declared Conservative voters are willing to buck the tide. But the raw numbers lead to a sneaking suspicion that a federal Conservative government would wield its axe well beyond the carbon tax.
“Why try to reduce carbon emissions if carbon emissions aren't a problem?” asked Philippe Fournier (rhetorically) after reviewing the latest polls. “One could re-frame Conservatives' opposition to carbon pricing as not just a cost of living issue, but also as distrust of climate science,” wrote the editor-in-chief of 338Canada. “If you don’t believe global warming is a man-made phenomenon, why even try to curb carbon emissions?”
Pierre Poilievre has been careful to ground his carbon tax attack on issues of affordability and effectiveness, not explicitly against climate action per se. But he’s certainly not trying to lead his base into alignment with the scientific consensus. Poilievre has accused the government of “exploiting” last summer’s forest fires and even heckled Liberal MP Karina Gould in the House of Commons, shouting that the wildfires in Alberta were “started by your government.”
And if Poilievre does ever intend to produce a climate platform without carbon pricing, he’s left himself few options. He could support new low-carbon energy but he’s crapped on most options to cut existing climate pollution: deriding EVs, supporting gas furnaces, conflating federal clean fuel and clean electricity regulations as additional carbon taxes and opposing the proposed cap on pollution from the oil and gas sector.
Instead of an emissions cap, Poilievre promises boom times for the oil and gas sector. “We’re going to clear the way for pipelines,” he promises. “Pipelines south, north, east, west.”
Writing about Poilievre’s attempt to force a “carbon tax election” in March, a group of 28 environment, legal and labour organizations warned, “It is clear to us that the debates and votes … are part of a concerted effort to dismantle more than just carbon pricing: they are part of an ideologically driven effort to limit all climate action.”
That effort has enlisted some notable supporters. While Poilievre positions himself on the side of working-class Canadians against “corporate lobbyists,” the corporates don’t seem to have taken it personally.
You can’t have missed the ads from the Pathways Alliance of oilsands companies claiming to be “on the road to net-zero.” Turns out, that road leads to the same intersection as Poilievre’s south-north-east-west pipelines. This week, DeSmog revealed the alliance’s co-founder, Alex Pourbaix, made a personal donation after the executive chairman of Cenovus attended a private “evening with Pierre Poilievre” fundraiser last year.
He wasn’t alone. Two dozen fossil fuel executives and investors attended that single event, and the donors included the former CEO of Suncor and the outgoing president of Canadian Natural Resources.
March madness
In case you’re wondering what’s happening with the climate amidst all the ruckus over climate policy… The global heat wave is marching on. In March, our planet set a new monthly record, for the 10th consecutive month.
🚨March 2024 was the warmest on record according to ERA5 Reanalysis. This is the 10th consecutive month that the Earth has set a new record! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/lbw7tyG6VL
— Brian Brettschneider (@Climatologist49) April 2, 2024
Deniers leading carbon tax opposition
“What’s new this year is that even some former provincial carbon tax supporters are throwing in the towel,” write Simon Donner and Kathryn Harrison. The two professors at the University of British Columbia conclude the positions of both towel-throwers and axe-the-taxers “rest on denial.”
Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston sent a letter to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau presenting his “Still Better Than a Carbon Tax” plan, reports Cloe Logan (the premier made a similar attempt in 2022). Analysts were unimpressed: “Emissions need to be cut back each year, and allowing the province to try to reduce its emissions with its current track record of missing targets is ‘a ridiculous idea.’”
And, Max Fawcett writes, “There’s a growing irony in the carbon tax increase falling on April Fools’ Day every year, since it now offers an annual reminder of just what a joke the Conservative Party of Canada’s approach to climate change has become.”
Meanwhile, Caroline Brouillette and Julia Levin argue that “governments across the country need to resist the cynical use of carbon pricing to distract from the real culprits of inflation.”
“To help Canadians through this difficult time, they must adopt policies that provide tangible and immediate support to address rising costs, while tackling the long-term dependency on fossil fuels that make us poorer and more vulnerable to energy price shocks and climate disasters.”
Subsidizing fossil fuels
The federal government provided at least $18.5 billion to the fossil fuel and petrochemical industries last year,” reports Natasha Bulowski. A report by Environmental Defence shows that “the largest single subsidy was to Trans Mountain, which benefited from $8 billion in loan guarantees to try to get its nearly completed $35-billion pipeline expansion project to the finish line.”
Other big ticket items include $200 million for Enbridge and $300 million for NOVA Chemicals from Crown corporation Export Development Canada.
Drought impacts
I was just there- so sad to see the rivers that low in the spring when they should be at their highest point! https://t.co/kDCtbOkctx
— Cindy Blackstock (@cblackst) April 1, 2024
Deloitte Canada warns that water shortages in Western Canada may impact the oil and gas sector in 2024.
“Some of the most extreme drought conditions currently are in northeast B.C. and northwest Alberta, a region that is the epicentre of Canada's natural gas drilling industry,” reports Amanda Stephenson.
“Water use is important for the natural gas industry — most development in Canada today involves hydraulic fracturing, a process that uses a combination of water, sand and chemicals to develop pathways to bring the gas to the surface.”
Climate change is already hurting farmers and costing Canadian taxpayers, Stephenson reports. “In western countries, when these (agricultural disasters) happen, governments are intervening a lot — meaning they subsidize and cover the losses,” said one expert. “But in the long run, that's just not sustainable for government spending. It costs a lot of money."
Electric vehicles expose the myth of ethical oil
“When Big Oil attacks successful climate solutions like electric vehicles, the facade of ethical conduct is shattered,” writes Rob Miller in his latest debunking of “fallacies being embraced by those who don’t believe we can build a cleaner future.”
In related news, “Hundreds of locations across Canada from big-name companies such as Suncor, Irving and Parkland are up for sale with no one so much as kicking the tires,” reports the Globe and Mail. “As electric-vehicle mandates — such as Canada’s commitment to having all new vehicles be battery-powered by 2035 — advance around the world, there are predictions that 80 per cent of the global fuel retail network as it exists today will be unprofitable roughly a decade from now.”
The carbon majors
Eighty-eight per cent of the global spew of CO2 since the Paris Agreement is linked to just 117 big fossil fuel producers. That’s according to the latest report by InfluenceMap quantifying the impact of the world’s “Carbon Majors” — the world’s largest oil, gas, coal and cement producers.
Most of them produced more fossil fuels since the Paris Agreement than in the seven years before it was adopted. And, yes, those Pathways Alliance companies are on the list.
"The Carbon Majors research shows us exactly who is responsible for the lethal heat, extreme weather and air pollution that is threatening lives and wreaking havoc on our oceans and forests,” says Tzeporah Berman, chair of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty (and wife of this newsletter scribbler).
“These companies have made billions of dollars in profits… They are spending millions on advertising campaigns… More than ever, we need our governments to stand up to these companies, and we need new international co-operation through a fossil fuel treaty to end the expansion of fossil fuels and ensure a truly just transition."
Climate change through the lens
World Press Photo announced the regional winners of its annual photojournalism contest highlighting dramatic images of climate impacts around the world. Haunting and strangely beautiful, the winners range from a solitary firefighter in Quebec to coal mine protesters in Germany. Check out Bloomberg’s sampling of the climate photos or the full portfolio of images.
Look at climate change through the lens of some of the world's best photojournalists (aka @WorldPressPhoto finalists)
— Laura Millan (@LauraMillanL) April 4, 2024
FREE read (and 👁️) via @climate https://t.co/SUfagpiPk9 pic.twitter.com/UR9iII3aKR
Solar panels cheaper than fencing
China is pumping out so many cheap solar panels that people are using them to line garden fences in Europe, reports the Financial Times.
"Why put up a fence when you can just put up a load of solar panels, even if they're not aligned exactly to the sun?" Martin Brough, the head of climate research at BNP Paribas, told the FT.
Deflecting sunrays
“It was the first outdoor test in the United States of technology designed to brighten clouds and bounce some of the sun’s rays back into space,” reports Christopher Flavelle from a decommissioned aircraft carrier in California.
The New York Times reporter (gift article) watched as scientists tested “whether the machine that took years to create could consistently spray the right size salt aerosols through the open air, outside of a lab.”
“Every year that we have new records of climate change, and record temperatures, heat waves, it’s driving the field to look at more alternatives,” said Robert Wood, the lead scientist for the team from the University of Washington that is running the marine cloud brightening project. “Even ones that may have once been relatively extreme.”
Women driving the e-bus
Your bonbon for this week comes from Colombia’s capital. Bogotá “has the second-largest fleet of electric buses outside of China, after recently being overtaken by Chile’s capital, Santiago.”
That’s just one surprise awaiting you in The Women Bus Drivers Overcoming Stereotypes in Bogotá, published by Reasons to be Cheerful.
As the headline suggests, “La Rolita — a diminutive of the word for a person from Bogotá, un rolo or una rola — is a public transit operator largely driven by women.”
“When Paola Perez shifts into gear and puts her foot down on the accelerator, the lime-green bus zips forward with an almost-silent whoooosh. Neat rows of dozens of identical vehicles are visible on either side through its large rectangular windshield.
“This is a very beautiful place to work,” says Perez, as she steers the bus through the pleasingly symmetrical universe of white lines, smooth grey asphalt and angular metal platforms that house nearly 200 electric charging stations. “It’s new, it’s clean and it all works.”