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Zombie fires and smouldering desire
The fires of public opinion might be smouldering like the zombie fires seething underground, according to some tantalizing new research.
It takes a real act of will to recall that time, not so very long ago, when politicians were rushing to the front of the parade, eager to align with the millions of climate marchers converging on city centres around the world. The pandemic sucked oxygen from those flames and the subsequent economic distress has kept them tamped. But the desire for action may just be overwintering.
There seems to be a truly surprising level of desire for action on climate, just below the surface and in all corners of the world. It is largely dormant because most of us think we’re alone in our anxiety — we are “conditional co-operators” waiting for ignition, according to the people who track this kind of thing. Tragically, the actual fires of climate change are not so hesitant.
We’ll look at the metaphorical fires of public sentiment as well as the zombie fires smoking underground in this week’s newsletter. We’d better begin with the ones closest to eruption.
The Alberta government has already declared the official start of fire season. There are more than 50 fires in the province, most of them zombie fires that refused to extinguish after the infernos of 2023.
The provincial government cannot bring itself to utter the words “climate change” but is clearly spooked by the briefings it’s getting from officials — large swaths of Alberta are tinder-dry, suffering severe or extreme drought.
And wildfire smoke is already a problem for residents of Fort Nelson, B.C. That province has 92 fires simmering away. That’s a lot in contrast to any previous winter. Zombie fires used to be a freakish curiosity. More recently, 15 would have been average. This year is “mind-boggling … just unheard of,” says one forest scientist.
The fire map for Western Canada is shocking — the orange dots are the hibernating zombies, only the fires coded in red are considered “out of control.” But I’m sure many of you will have the same reaction I did: “It’s only freaking February!”
Most zombie fires smoulder unnoticed over winter. But around Fort Nelson, there have been clouds of smoke rising from the ground within 40 kilometres of town. Even the snowstorms have been sinister — not so much whiteouts as blue-grey blizzards.
"I'd never experienced a snowstorm that smelled like smoke," Sonja Leverkus, a firefighter and scientist, told the BBC.
Our tactical maps show the zombies are concentrated in Western Canada, but this weird winter has other Canadians anxious as well. Noah Freedman, a forest fire crew leader and vice-president of Ontario Public Service Employees Union Local 703, sounded the alarm this week. Writing in Canada’s National Observer, Freedman says the provincial government is on a campaign to silence firefighters’ warnings.
“As Ontario’s vast forests become more volatile, its wildfire program grows increasingly fragile due to a series of crises the government has been ignoring for years,” says Freedman.
We can’t know what any specific year will bring. But the indicators are ominous. Snowpack is low, drought is widespread and Environment and Climate Change Canada projects abnormally high temperatures across the country this spring and summer.
I’ve plugged John Vaillant’s extraordinary book Fire Weather before. It couldn’t have been more timely when it was published in May last year and seems equally so in February 2024. If you haven’t read it yet, there might still be time before the zombies emerge on the landscape. As Vaillant writes, “There is in our future a potentially winter-less scenario in which fire weather is the only weather, and ‘fire season’ never ends."
Smouldering desire
Let’s turn to the kind of flareup that would be welcome: What if I told you that 89 per cent of people around the world think their government should do more to fight global warming? And over two-thirds say they would be willing to contribute one per cent of their income to the task?
Skeptical? I certainly was. But there are powerful insights in the global survey that found those results — we are profoundly social creatures and our public expressions are shaped by norms and our perceptions of those around us. Those perceptions are way off the mark, the study found. People all over the world seriously underestimate the commitment others are willing to make.
And the researchers hone in on a second insight: We might be well-meaning but we’re not prepared to be chumps. That’s not their language. In the research team’s more fancy terminology, humans are “conditional co-operators.” We’ll follow through if we think others will too. But, for the moment, most of us “systematically underestimate the willingness of fellow citizens to act.”
The research was published this month in Nature Climate Change based on polling by Gallup, which surveyed nearly 130,000 people across 125 countries. When it comes to acting against climate pollution, “the world is in a state of pluralistic ignorance,” conclude the authors. “People systematically misperceive the beliefs or attitudes held by others.”
In 114 out of 125 countries, a majority is willing to contribute. But in 110 of them, that majority mistakenly thinks they are a minority.
So, if the results don’t track with your own daily experience around town, it could be that there’s more desire for action smouldering under the surface than people feel willing to express.
It could also be that you live in a country like Canada. One of the wrenching results of the research is that people are more willing to step up in countries that are poorer (and less-dominated by fossil fuel promotion).
The lighter the colour on the map below, the more tight-fisted. You can’t help but notice the correlation with places where fossil fuel propagandists have been given the largest share of voice.
Whatever the colour and no matter where a country ranks on the list, there is still a strong latent desire for more climate action. Its public expression may be mangled by propaganda and political distortions. But, smouldering beneath the surface, the researchers found that 82 per cent of Canadians want intensified political action.
After sifting through all those responses and dissecting the obstacles, the team arrived at a simple but fundamental conclusion:
“Rather than echoing the concerns of a vocal minority that opposes any form of climate action, we need to effectively communicate that the vast majority of people around the world are willing to act and expect their national government to act.”
Political distortions
Speaking of political distortions, there’s a car-crazy culture war underway. Stephen Guilbeault’s comment about the feds focusing investments on active and public transit have ignited a “countrywide frenzy among premiers and media commentators,” reports Matteo Cimellaro.
Meanwhile, the Ford government is kneecapping Ontario’s energy regulator. The regulator had the gall to protect existing customers in the face of Enbridge’s plans to expand the gas grid. It was a blow to Enbridge, and the Ford government has tabled legislation to overrule the Ontario Energy Board, saying it will replace the chair of the board and issue a policy directive about natural gas.
Alberta’s United Conservative government is ramping up opposition to any cap on emissions from the oil and gas sector. The latest furor stems from Justin Trudeau’s comments that “the world is changing… But right-wing ideology is getting in the way of Alberta’s success.”
A cap on emissions would formalize all the promises and advertising by the oil and gas sector. “It essentially calls the industry’s bluff on targets and technologies it has been talking up for years,” writes Max Fawcett.
Political pressure
Keith Stewart got arrested at Chrystia Freeland’s office last week, demanding the finance minister bring in climate regulations on banks. The Greenpeace protester writes that “when it comes to climate action, later is too late.”
“Twenty-five years ago, when I first lobbied a senior federal Liberal political staffer about the urgency of action on climate change, the individual replied: ‘Sure, Canadians want action on climate, but they don’t want it very much. You don’t see anyone getting arrested over it, do you?’
“Well, now you do.”
No offshore drilling on the West Coast
“The last offshore oil and gas permits for Canada’s Pacific coast have been retired,” reports Rochelle Baker. Getting rid of the last 23 offshore permits opens the way for an expanded network of Indigenous-led ocean conservation areas, particularly in the Great Bear Sea region.
Public support for B.C. LNG plans falling
New polling finds support for renewable energy on the rise and sees public support for LNG dropping in British Columbia. Renewables now have 69 per cent backing, while support for LNG has dropped to 15 per cent.
“Given a choice between investing more in clean energy versus LNG — because in many ways, it is a choice — the preference is overwhelmingly in favour of the former. And that preference seems to be growing,” says Trevor Melanson, Clean Energy Canada’s communications director.
Chicago sues Big Oil
The third-largest city in the U.S. is suing fossil fuel companies and the American Petroleum Institute. Chicago alleges the industry deceived the public about the climate crisis and is seeking compensation for deaths and damage.
“Since 2017, eight states, three dozen municipalities, and the District of Columbia have sued big oil for allegedly hiding the dangers of their products from consumers and investors,” reports The Guardian.
Milestones in Germany
Coal is no longer Germany’s main source of electricity generation. The top spot now belongs to wind power, according to the think tank Ember.
And the country’s largest installer of heating systems announced it will no longer install gas furnaces. Thermodo sold its last furnace this month. The company says it is “now fully concentrating on heat pumps, photovoltaics and other technologies for climate-neutral living.”
Gas-powered cars on the decline
All those headlines about sluggish EV sales are “nonsense” says Rick Smith, head of the Canadian Climate Institute. The institute finds that gas-powered car sales peaked back in 2017.
Confessions of a Canadian climate refugee
To close out this week’s newsletter, let’s circle back to the fiery impacts of climate change. Gary Symons is a former reporter for CBC News and built a life in the wine-growing country of B.C.’s Okanagan Valley. But the evidence has “become overwhelming that the Okanagan Valley is facing a growing environmental catastrophe,” he writes in Confessions of a Canadian climate refugee.
“When people hear the term ‘climate refugee,’ most think of huddled masses from impoverished countries driven from their homes by drought and famine,” writes Symons. “But there are also climate refugees in wealthy countries like Canada. I know because I’m one of them.