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The ‘just transition’ act won’t cost Alberta jobs — but Danielle Smith might

Cenovus CEO Alex Pourbaix announces a multi-year initiative focused on Indigenous communities near the company's oilsands operations in northern Alberta at a news conference in Calgary on Jan. 30, 2020. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh

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It’s one of the immutable tropes of Canadian politics: conservative parties are better for the business community than their more progressive counterparts. But in her ongoing war against the reality of the federal government’s “just transition” legislation, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith seems determined to prove that wrong.

After all, her province is in the midst of a pitched battle for many billions of dollars in clean technology capital, which became all the more intense after the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act tilted the table in its direction. And while pretending that Ottawa is deliberately plotting to eliminate millions of jobs and destroy entire sectors of the economy might delight her most ardent supporters, leaders of the industry she’s apparently trying to defend sound far less enthusiastic about her approach.

And no wonder: unlike Smith, they have billions of dollars in potential investments — and perhaps the very existence of their companies — at stake.

Just ask Alex Pourbaix, CEO of Cenovus Energy. In an interview with the Calgary Herald’s Chris Varcoe, he said investments in the decarbonization of Canada’s oilsands — you know, the ones the federal government wants them to make — will create jobs, not destroy them. “This transition, if done correctly and if we’re able to materially decarbonize the Canadian barrel of oil, I actually think it should result in more jobs — and materially more jobs — in the Canadian energy sector.”

Derek Evans, another oilsands company CEO, suggested the real issue would be the availability of people, not jobs. “I’m quite worried, let me put it this way, that we don’t have enough people in Canada to get the job done,” the MEG Energy CEO told The Canadian Press’ Mia Rabson.

Danielle Smith says she's fighting the "just transition" in order to protect Alberta jobs. So why is she saying and doing things that could end up costing thousands of them? @maxfawcett writes for @NatObserver

In other words, they’re not afraid of the energy transition. Instead, they’re afraid of not getting that transition right — and the governments involved being more focused on scoring political points. They probably should be afraid, given the Smith team’s determination to misrepresent the federal government’s position here and continue lying about the jobs it supposedly plans to eliminate, even in the face of numerous corrections from the government in question.

That’s a clear contrast to what’s happening in the United States, where state and federal governments that might otherwise squabble are at least aligned in their efforts to attract low-carbon capital. The Inflation Reduction Act, which passed last August, has made carbon capture technology far more attractive in places like Texas, which has already seen two major announcements in the last three months. As Christoph Gebald, the co-owner of a Swiss direct air carbon capture company called Climeworks, told Time last year, “It will establish the United States as the place to be to deploy such technologies. And I am very convinced that this will also kick off a spiral of action from investors.”

That spiral will only accelerate if Alberta can’t get its act together. Like Texas, Alberta has an oil and gas industry that needs to reduce its emissions and a physical geography that makes carbon capture both possible and potentially profitable. And while the federal government isn’t offering incentives quite as generous as those proffered by the Biden administration, it has already put billions of dollars in tax credits up for grabs. What’s missing is a stable political and regulatory environment in Alberta and a provincial government willing to work with its national counterpart to match the money they’re putting on the table.

Ironically, this could actually be what ends up costing Albertans their jobs — not the federal plan to invest in training and education but the provincial government’s unwillingness to accept and embrace reality.

Smith and her proxies in the Postmedia pundit class can continue to pretend the long-awaited “just transition” legislation is a nefarious plot to eliminate oil and gas, kill hundreds of thousands of jobs and reduce Alberta to penury. But indulging in this self-serving theatre means wasting valuable time that could be going towards actually managing the energy transition, and ensuring both Alberta and Canada are as well-prepared and positioned for it as possible.

Rest assured, American states like Texas and Louisiana will be more than happy to eat our lunch here. But in time, Albertans may be less pleased about Smith’s decision to serve it up to them on a platter.

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